It's a strange one: sticking around at a stadium to greet like heroes a squad that has just escaped from the struggle of their lives.
Pat Fenlon called last night's acclaim for his Hibs team "embarrassing," stressing that this was more an opportunity to thank the fans rather than an occasion of unadulterated joy.
Football inspires daftness though. And a season long struggle with inadequacy, an inability to plot safe passage through the bog of relegation, can drive a supporter mad.
Last night, then, was a howl of relief as much as anything. Supporters thankful for the escape, thankful to finally have a reason to celebrate.
It took Hibs until their last home game to record a second home league victory, to attract their highest crowd of the season, to deliver a performance that the fans could really respond to and finally finish off the lingering threat of Dunfermline.
Until the last home game of the season, in fact, to offer up any sort of evidence that fans weren’t completely demented to put their faith in the team.
Not just blind faith either. Season tickets might have broken down to as much as £31 per home point and £23.82 per home goal. With kick off times ever more unpredictable, that’s a hefty price to pay for doom and gloom with only sporadic outbursts of football.
Fenlon has had his struggles since inheriting Colin Calderwood’s listing ship. His search for a first home league win went to the wire.
He’ll have been heartened that those three points were won thanks to an impressive team display. Six of the his starting eleven and two of his substitutes have arrived at Easter Road since his first game in December. At the last, his team finally came together.
It’s not been the most rapid of quick fixes but the club was in disarray when he took over. And he has, as he said he would, got the job done.
For that achievement to be truly worthwhile the cycle of loan deals and January window signing sprees has to be broken.
Last season a good February was enough to save Hibs from a prolonged relegation battle.
This season they have not even enjoyed that sort of purple patch. One good month in two seasons is a poor return.
Last summer was defined not by the root and branch rebuilding job that was required but by an obstinate board standing by a disconnected manager.
With the guardian of football matters and the guardians of the purse strings both distracted Hibs drifted aimlessly into the new season.
It took until last night to free them from the obvious consequences of that mismanagement.
They can't afford a repeat.
This summer needs sensible, competitive investment in the team. A reinvigorated scouting policy. The fabled but faded conveyor belt of young talent chugging back into life.
The sort of sound management of footballing matters that has somehow eluded Hibs of late.
A permanent deal for on-loan captain James McPake would be a fine starting point. A show of ambition, a symbol of determination, a sound building block for both the immediate future and a signing to develop a team around in the long term.
It would also be a far more meaningful "thank you" to the fans than a lap of honour in the immediate aftermath of a win over the SPL's bottom club.
Fenlon has a part to play. Some fans still need to be convinced that he's the right man for the job. More perhaps are happy to give him the benefit of the doubt, impressed with his commitment and his desire to put right the wrongs of the past.
He can't do that alone. There are others at the club who have survived managerial changes and presided over the general decline into this malaise.
They've made plenty of mistakes. This summer must surely be their last chance to show that lessons have been learned.
Last night showed that the fans will respond to meaningful games and will react to fine performances.
They shouldn't have to wait until the last home game of the season with SPL survival on the line to prove it.
Of course the landscape might change yet again. Somehow this patchwork team, so often frustrating in the league, find themselves on the brink of the club's biggest ever game.
The Scottish Cup final against Hearts draws ever closer.
A victory there would create legends, make history.
But it wouldn't hugely change the summer's priorities.
A Hampden win would be a hell of a success, one I can hardly begin to comprehend.
Another summer of failures, however, would render it a solitary one.
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Showing posts with label SPL relegation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPL relegation. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Sunday, April 29, 2012
SPL: Finding meaning, finding belief
Quite a Sunday ahead.
Celtic hosting Rangers and Hibs continuing their long, frustrating struggle to shake off relegation rivals Dunfermline against St Mirren. Two games that might normally have the Betfair football betting experts scratching their heads.
Today's match at Celtic Park is both essentially meaningless and yet crammed full of meaning.
The league title is already Celtic's. Rangers will likely claim a second place that will be rendered redundant by their current suspension from European competition.
One of these dull, go-through-the-motions, end-of season affairs then?
Perhaps not.
Some are trying to label this a bookend game: the final act in a dramatic rivalry that began on 28 May 1888.
That's unlikely. Rangers will still be around next season although it's impossible at the moment to predict where or in what form.
Yet even if the sense of closure is somewhat false there's reason for players and fans to view this as a big game.
Celtic, revelling in the role of conquerors, have a chance to drive home the feeling of triumphalism in front of a home crowd that will, surely, be high on the madness that swirls round their oldest rivals.
But what a boost a strong showing here would be for Rangers and their supporters.
Battling on a hundred fronts, swiping like punch drunk pugilists at enemies real and imagined, moving no closer to the resolution they crave.
Duff & Phelps, Rangers' administrators, have presided over a process that has delivered only delays and conditional bids, a process that has seen them look ever more like the boys who cried wolf, rescue packages still tantalisingly out of reach.
Today's match offers a 90 minute distillation of that drama, a game without tangible rewards but packed with enough meaning to ensure fans on both sides care more than ever.
How will it pan out?
I find predicting these things increasingly unpredictable, it's a game that can inspire some and leave others looking bereft.
The bookies though, and heaven knows my expertise is limited, would seem to be offering unusual generosity in their verdict on Rangers.
The club is, unavoidably, in a crisis of gargantuan proportions but recent form has seen the players show an admirable fortitude in the face of such ructions. We need look no further than the last Old Firm game to illustrate that an unknown future hasn't fulling snuffed out the danger that lurks in this team.
Fence sitting, as ever, suggests erring on the side of a draw but I'd still be surprised if Celtic don't win this one.
This, however, has been a season of surprises.
As the dust settles on the Old Firm game our attention can turn once again to the relegation travails of Hibs and Dunfermline.
Hibs fans are doing a fair impression of Michael Corleone at the moment. Just when they think they are out of the mire, Dunfermline pull them back in.
So it proved yesterday. A 3-0 win over Aberdeen was enough to give the Fifers their first home victory of the season, cut to three points the lead Hibs enjoyed and even make something a dent in the goal difference imbalance.
If Dunfermline wanted to switch the pressure back on to their fellow strugglers then yesterday was mission accomplished.
Hibs and pressure. What does manager Pat Fenlon see when he looks around the side that he's cobbled together with less than convincing results?
A team that can turn up Paisley today and deliver the riposte needed to halt any Dunfermline revival before it has properly begun?
Or a team that, like so many before them, St Mirren will see as easy touches, a welcome home three points to inject some fun into the dying embers of the season?
Hibs fans will hope he sees some resolve, sees the realisation dawning that his team have it in their gift to save themselves.
But those fans have been looking for the right answers to those questions all season long. Too often they've been disappointed.
Hope rather than expectation has guided emotion in Leith this season.
That continues today.
Another commanding performance from James McPake in defence, some incision from Garry O'Connor and Leigh Griffiths, something more cohesive from a misfiring midfield.
Deliver that and three points can be within reach today.
Fail - and they've failed a lot this year - and St Mirren have quality enough to prolong the suffering.
The stakes are high.
Time for the Hibs players to take a gamble and believe in themselves.
Even that might not be enough.
But they have to hope that it will let them crawl over the finish line.
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Celtic hosting Rangers and Hibs continuing their long, frustrating struggle to shake off relegation rivals Dunfermline against St Mirren. Two games that might normally have the Betfair football betting experts scratching their heads.
Today's match at Celtic Park is both essentially meaningless and yet crammed full of meaning.
The league title is already Celtic's. Rangers will likely claim a second place that will be rendered redundant by their current suspension from European competition.
One of these dull, go-through-the-motions, end-of season affairs then?
Perhaps not.
Some are trying to label this a bookend game: the final act in a dramatic rivalry that began on 28 May 1888.
That's unlikely. Rangers will still be around next season although it's impossible at the moment to predict where or in what form.
Yet even if the sense of closure is somewhat false there's reason for players and fans to view this as a big game.
Celtic, revelling in the role of conquerors, have a chance to drive home the feeling of triumphalism in front of a home crowd that will, surely, be high on the madness that swirls round their oldest rivals.
But what a boost a strong showing here would be for Rangers and their supporters.
Battling on a hundred fronts, swiping like punch drunk pugilists at enemies real and imagined, moving no closer to the resolution they crave.
Duff & Phelps, Rangers' administrators, have presided over a process that has delivered only delays and conditional bids, a process that has seen them look ever more like the boys who cried wolf, rescue packages still tantalisingly out of reach.
Today's match offers a 90 minute distillation of that drama, a game without tangible rewards but packed with enough meaning to ensure fans on both sides care more than ever.
How will it pan out?
I find predicting these things increasingly unpredictable, it's a game that can inspire some and leave others looking bereft.
The bookies though, and heaven knows my expertise is limited, would seem to be offering unusual generosity in their verdict on Rangers.
The club is, unavoidably, in a crisis of gargantuan proportions but recent form has seen the players show an admirable fortitude in the face of such ructions. We need look no further than the last Old Firm game to illustrate that an unknown future hasn't fulling snuffed out the danger that lurks in this team.
Fence sitting, as ever, suggests erring on the side of a draw but I'd still be surprised if Celtic don't win this one.
This, however, has been a season of surprises.
As the dust settles on the Old Firm game our attention can turn once again to the relegation travails of Hibs and Dunfermline.
Hibs fans are doing a fair impression of Michael Corleone at the moment. Just when they think they are out of the mire, Dunfermline pull them back in.
So it proved yesterday. A 3-0 win over Aberdeen was enough to give the Fifers their first home victory of the season, cut to three points the lead Hibs enjoyed and even make something a dent in the goal difference imbalance.
If Dunfermline wanted to switch the pressure back on to their fellow strugglers then yesterday was mission accomplished.
Hibs and pressure. What does manager Pat Fenlon see when he looks around the side that he's cobbled together with less than convincing results?
A team that can turn up Paisley today and deliver the riposte needed to halt any Dunfermline revival before it has properly begun?
Or a team that, like so many before them, St Mirren will see as easy touches, a welcome home three points to inject some fun into the dying embers of the season?
Hibs fans will hope he sees some resolve, sees the realisation dawning that his team have it in their gift to save themselves.
But those fans have been looking for the right answers to those questions all season long. Too often they've been disappointed.
Hope rather than expectation has guided emotion in Leith this season.
That continues today.
Another commanding performance from James McPake in defence, some incision from Garry O'Connor and Leigh Griffiths, something more cohesive from a misfiring midfield.
Deliver that and three points can be within reach today.
Fail - and they've failed a lot this year - and St Mirren have quality enough to prolong the suffering.
The stakes are high.
Time for the Hibs players to take a gamble and believe in themselves.
Even that might not be enough.
But they have to hope that it will let them crawl over the finish line.
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Friday, April 20, 2012
Albion Road: Risk and opportunity
As promised I've made a swift return to the halcyon pages of Albion Road.
This week I'm taking a look at the outstanding SPL issues of the season as four go mad for Europe and two are driven crazy by relegation pressure:
I'll be back on Albion Road in May with a round-up of the SPL season. And I might even take a look back at the Scottish Cup final.
albionroad.com
@albion_road
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This week I'm taking a look at the outstanding SPL issues of the season as four go mad for Europe and two are driven crazy by relegation pressure:
Just five games left now in the 2011/12 SPL season.Read the whole article here
The rather artificial construct that sees the league fracture into a top and bottom six clubs just a few weeks from the finish line runs the risk of creating something of an anti-climatic SPL conclusion.
That risk is heightened when, as with Celtic this year, the title is done and dusted with a handful games to spare.
We're left searching for alternative distractions. This season an intriguing battle for Europe and a prolonged relegation struggle should be enough to keep interest alive.
At the bottom we wonder just how good a season could this yet be for Hibs?
Remarkably it could be one of their best since their league-winning glory days in the 1950s.
Remarkable because for the largest chunk of this season Hibs have been a weak impersonation of a top flight football club.
I'll be back on Albion Road in May with a round-up of the SPL season. And I might even take a look back at the Scottish Cup final.
albionroad.com
@albion_road
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Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Hibs: A sorry saga
Little by little, inch by inch, Hibs are moving towards SPL safety.
Three points salvaged from a poor performance in Inverness were followed by a single point in an encouraging display against Motherwell on Sunday.
These are not earth shattering displays. But they are enough to edge further from a poor Dunfermline side who have not yet enjoyed the bounce they might have expected when unveiling Jim Jefferies as a managerial Red Adair.
A seven point advantage with 15 points to play for doesn't represent safety for Hibs. But it's going to take something special to condemn them to the First Division.
So it should be an optimistic sunshine that settles on Leith in the run up to Saturday's Scottish Cup semi final against Aberdeen on Saturday.
Is it?
I'm not so sure.
While tickets for that Hampden clash have been described as steady, cup fever has yet to grip the club.
An attendance for the Motherwell game of just over 7000 points to a supporter base that is being reduced to a rump.
The deadline for season ticket renewals has been extended. The official reason for this, to compensate for the increased demand on the clubs resources caused by the sale of semi-final tickets, should be treated with care.
Such is the concern within the club at falling attendances and poor sales that chairman Rod Petrie was forced into a public statement last week.
For those of us who watch events at Easter Road with an interest bordering on obsession any breaking of Petrie's silence is a major event.
This is a man who seems to think of himself as the mute force of good sense and benevolence at Hibs, the moustachioed Buddha of Albion Road.
So a Petrie statement is unusual. A Petrie apology is even rarer. But here it was:
"We made mistakes - I made mistakes. I am sorry. We have paid for these mistakes. That was then, this is 2012."
He went on to praise manager Pat Fenlon - "a tough competitor and a winner" - and quote statistics to illustrate the team's progress since Fenlon took over from Colin Calderwood. He even name checked the previous manager when acknowledging the decline in attendances.
The problem for Petrie and the Hibs board is that we've heard all this before.
In July of 2011 the chairman was making a stout defence of Calderwood, backing that up with illustrative statistics and pinning the blame on John Hughes.
For all the solace he takes in silence, Rod Petrie is running the risk of becoming the SPL chairman who cried wolf.
And that is leading to a deficit of trust.
The fans would react to a more successful team. But they don't trust the current board to furnish that ambition. That makes season ticket sales a hard sell.
It's an even harder sell if you present frozen ticket prices as some sort of victory for people power. It's not if people already think those prices are too steep.
It's doubly hard if you slip through an announcement that interest will now be charged on your "pay monthly" season ticket deal.
And it's even harder if you start selling season tickets when there remains a chance you'll be playing lower division football for the season in question.
These were a series of marketing decision that fuelled the idea that the Hibs board either have no cognisance of the feelings of fans or no regard for those feelings.
When a board appears to be navigating blindly through modern football there is very little chance of them being able to rely on the blind faith of supporters.
The bloody-minded player's coup that Petrie allowed to triumph over John Collins, the unsatisfactory reign of Mixu Paatelainen, the gradual descent of Hughes' stewardship into verbose madness, the mistake of first appointing Calderwood and then standing by him during a summer of rumour and indecisiveness.
Rod Petrie and his incoming chief executive Scott Lindsay have been around for these misjudgements, unsteady hands on the tiller during ever stormier weather.
The result is the current league plight. And a fans that have gone through rage and settled on detached apathy.
Apathy should be the thing that a football club fears the most.
"Please play your part and do whatever you can to help Pat and to support your team.
"By working together we can bring success to the Club. We are Hibernian!"
That was Rod Petrie's closing plea to supporters last week.
I agree with him. I'd love fans to renew season tickets, to see them queue round the block for semi final tickets, to throng the turnstiles for the league challenges ahead.
But I won't blame for them not doing that. Money's tight, people aren't daft. There are only so many times you'll let the club you love smack you in the face before deciding the pain and the hassle are not worth it.
And it's Rod Petrie and his board, the directors he has hand picked, who are largely to blame for that.
It will take more than statements, retrospective apologies and selective statistics to right those wrongs.
So this is a big week for Hibs. A strong performance against Aberdeen, the promise of a Scottish Cup final to come. These are things for fans to get enthused about.
An emphatic run in the bottom six of the league would also help, a run to quell those rebellious Fifers and give a hint of the sort of team Fenlon hopes to mould over the summer.
That would help confirm the view that buying a season ticket won't be an expensive form of masochism next season.
I hope the players and Fenlon can pull it off. And I hope the fans respond if they do.
Still though I can't shift the conclusion that it's the board not the fans or the manager who should be contributing more to the well-being of the club.
The days, weeks and months ahead might represent a defining moment for Hibs.
It's time for Rod Petrie to realise that actions speak louder than words.
> Cup or survival?
That question's been asked a lot of late among Hibs fans. Petrie's statement spoke of the fans helping the team achieve both. Ian Murray is quoted as saying the "romantic" notion for fans and players would be a cup triumph over SPL survival?
I don't remember Hibs winning the Scottish Cup. I do remember the anguish of relegation.
So depressing would the act of relegation be that I don't see how Hibs could win the cup after being dumped into the First Division.
It's survival and the chance of a cup win or nothing for me.
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Three points salvaged from a poor performance in Inverness were followed by a single point in an encouraging display against Motherwell on Sunday.
These are not earth shattering displays. But they are enough to edge further from a poor Dunfermline side who have not yet enjoyed the bounce they might have expected when unveiling Jim Jefferies as a managerial Red Adair.
A seven point advantage with 15 points to play for doesn't represent safety for Hibs. But it's going to take something special to condemn them to the First Division.
So it should be an optimistic sunshine that settles on Leith in the run up to Saturday's Scottish Cup semi final against Aberdeen on Saturday.
Is it?
I'm not so sure.
While tickets for that Hampden clash have been described as steady, cup fever has yet to grip the club.
An attendance for the Motherwell game of just over 7000 points to a supporter base that is being reduced to a rump.
The deadline for season ticket renewals has been extended. The official reason for this, to compensate for the increased demand on the clubs resources caused by the sale of semi-final tickets, should be treated with care.
Such is the concern within the club at falling attendances and poor sales that chairman Rod Petrie was forced into a public statement last week.
For those of us who watch events at Easter Road with an interest bordering on obsession any breaking of Petrie's silence is a major event.
This is a man who seems to think of himself as the mute force of good sense and benevolence at Hibs, the moustachioed Buddha of Albion Road.
So a Petrie statement is unusual. A Petrie apology is even rarer. But here it was:
"We made mistakes - I made mistakes. I am sorry. We have paid for these mistakes. That was then, this is 2012."
He went on to praise manager Pat Fenlon - "a tough competitor and a winner" - and quote statistics to illustrate the team's progress since Fenlon took over from Colin Calderwood. He even name checked the previous manager when acknowledging the decline in attendances.
The problem for Petrie and the Hibs board is that we've heard all this before.
In July of 2011 the chairman was making a stout defence of Calderwood, backing that up with illustrative statistics and pinning the blame on John Hughes.
For all the solace he takes in silence, Rod Petrie is running the risk of becoming the SPL chairman who cried wolf.
And that is leading to a deficit of trust.
The fans would react to a more successful team. But they don't trust the current board to furnish that ambition. That makes season ticket sales a hard sell.
It's an even harder sell if you present frozen ticket prices as some sort of victory for people power. It's not if people already think those prices are too steep.
It's doubly hard if you slip through an announcement that interest will now be charged on your "pay monthly" season ticket deal.
And it's even harder if you start selling season tickets when there remains a chance you'll be playing lower division football for the season in question.
These were a series of marketing decision that fuelled the idea that the Hibs board either have no cognisance of the feelings of fans or no regard for those feelings.
When a board appears to be navigating blindly through modern football there is very little chance of them being able to rely on the blind faith of supporters.
The bloody-minded player's coup that Petrie allowed to triumph over John Collins, the unsatisfactory reign of Mixu Paatelainen, the gradual descent of Hughes' stewardship into verbose madness, the mistake of first appointing Calderwood and then standing by him during a summer of rumour and indecisiveness.
Rod Petrie and his incoming chief executive Scott Lindsay have been around for these misjudgements, unsteady hands on the tiller during ever stormier weather.
The result is the current league plight. And a fans that have gone through rage and settled on detached apathy.
Apathy should be the thing that a football club fears the most.
"Please play your part and do whatever you can to help Pat and to support your team.
"By working together we can bring success to the Club. We are Hibernian!"
That was Rod Petrie's closing plea to supporters last week.
I agree with him. I'd love fans to renew season tickets, to see them queue round the block for semi final tickets, to throng the turnstiles for the league challenges ahead.
But I won't blame for them not doing that. Money's tight, people aren't daft. There are only so many times you'll let the club you love smack you in the face before deciding the pain and the hassle are not worth it.
And it's Rod Petrie and his board, the directors he has hand picked, who are largely to blame for that.
It will take more than statements, retrospective apologies and selective statistics to right those wrongs.
So this is a big week for Hibs. A strong performance against Aberdeen, the promise of a Scottish Cup final to come. These are things for fans to get enthused about.
An emphatic run in the bottom six of the league would also help, a run to quell those rebellious Fifers and give a hint of the sort of team Fenlon hopes to mould over the summer.
That would help confirm the view that buying a season ticket won't be an expensive form of masochism next season.
I hope the players and Fenlon can pull it off. And I hope the fans respond if they do.
Still though I can't shift the conclusion that it's the board not the fans or the manager who should be contributing more to the well-being of the club.
The days, weeks and months ahead might represent a defining moment for Hibs.
It's time for Rod Petrie to realise that actions speak louder than words.
> Cup or survival?
That question's been asked a lot of late among Hibs fans. Petrie's statement spoke of the fans helping the team achieve both. Ian Murray is quoted as saying the "romantic" notion for fans and players would be a cup triumph over SPL survival?
I don't remember Hibs winning the Scottish Cup. I do remember the anguish of relegation.
So depressing would the act of relegation be that I don't see how Hibs could win the cup after being dumped into the First Division.
It's survival and the chance of a cup win or nothing for me.
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Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Enemies reunited: Jim Jefferies returns
Hibs fans aren't supposed to like Jim Jefferies.
The walking personification of Hearts, he wasn't put on this earth for us to hold him dear.
And largely we don't like him.
But there's something about Jim.
Maybe it's because, in the constantly evolving modern game, the nostalgic sight of a Wallyford curmudgeon prowling SPL technical areas will likely become ever rarer.
Maybe it's simply that, like an ageing aunt you don't particularly care for, Jim is always there for the big moments.
The most famous result in Hibs history, that Tynecastle walloping that's echoed down the decades? There was Jim playing for Hearts.
When Hibs got relegated in 1998? There was JJ delivering a Scottish Cup to Tynecastle, adding the cyanide icing to that particularly bitter sponge.
When Alex McLeish and Franck Sauzee let Hibs fans dream again? There was Jim in the Hearts dugout, looking like a basset hound chewing a mosquito.
When Hibs ran rampant against Kilmarnock at Hampden? There was a miserable Jim providing inspiration for the massed choirs.
If nothing else Jim has been a totem, a rallying point for our ridicule and our wrath. And there's always a certain comfort in such constants.
The relationship might have changed of late. At half time during Sunday's derby, after the latest insipid display in Hibernian's comatose season, I was treated to some fine invective about the trick Hibs had missed in plumping for Pat Fenlon instead of Jefferies when Colin Calderwood took his leave.
That's very far from being a majority view. But a minority, in Sunday's case a vocal minority with a vocabulary that would make Dave Allen blush, saw him as the best man to do a short term job in another moment of Leith crisis.
Hibs chose a different path. Jumping from the SPL managerial carousel they opted for Fenlon and gave him the dual task of plotting a long term future for a club that's been rocked by a series of botched quick fixes while at the same time finding an immediate formula to keep Hibs in the SPL.
The latter job seemed tricky but also oddly simple. Turn a team without heart into a team that could fight for points. That was never going to be easy.
Create a team that, at a bare minimum, remained a touch better off than Dunfermline. Not so difficult.
Hibs have been poor this season. Very poor. But Dunfermline's weaknesses have saved Hibs from the relegation spot. Hibs own weaknesses have, in turn, ensured Dunfermline have not been cut adrift.
The story of the bottom six was set, a last waltz between Hibs and Dunfermline.
There was, I think, a satisfaction among some at Easter Road that the winter transfer window represented a job well done. A skin of the teeth job, maybe, but enough to outlast Dunfermline.
And then patient Dunfermline finally reached the end of the line with Jim McIntyre.
No time for a novice? Send for the time served gaffer.
Enter Jim Jefferies at East End Park.
If Fenlon's immediate remit has been to stay ahead of Dunfermline so Jefferies will have been given a clear instruction: reel Hibs in.
Both managers might eye St Mirren (without a win in 2012) or Inverness (six points from 21) and ponder the benefits of spreading the relegation load.
But for now it's boiled down to Hibs v Dunfermline. To, yet again, Hibs v Jim Jefferies.
The narrative has got more interesting: the back story stuffed with history, ancient and modern. Jefferies in a survival battle with Fenlon's assistant Billy Brown, for so long the Shirlie to his Pepsi.
Enough to cause a collective shudder in Leith, enough to set moustaches trembling in the Easter Road boardroom?
Probably.
Hearts fans have taken a glee that is quite unbecoming in pointing out to me that Hibs are now most certainly doomed.
Piffle. That might happen. But there are few guarantees.
Jefferies is far from universally lauded in Kilmarnock and, despite the surprise at his eventual dismissal, his record in his final few months at Hearts wasn't great.
He inherits a team that must be low on confidence, someone else's squad - a thin one at that - and players who haven't managed a home win this season.
Curing those ills won't be easy.
Can Jefferies do it?
Undoubtedly. He's a sound manager, knows what's needed in the SPL and he wouldn't have taken the job if he didn't think he could pull it off.
Maybe he'll be able to galvanise and cajole where McIntyre couldn't. A home game against St Mirren that looks winnable would give him the perfect start on Saturday.
Then he needs to negotiate Hearts and Dundee United before the league split. After that he'll relish the battle of the bottom six. And anything will be possible.
This is not mission impossible. The relegation battle wasn't over when Dunfermline elected to jettison McIntyre. The arrival of Jefferies will almost certainly ensure there are even more twists and turns ahead.
Two poor teams searching for enough inspiration to get them over the line.
Jim Jefferies and Hibs.
Hibs and Jim Jefferies.
It's game on yet again in this most enduring Scottish football duel.
> The Daily Mail reports this morning that Leigh Griffiths has left Hibs after sticking the heid on Pat Fenlon and punching Billy Brown. There, allegedly, is a twist and a turn right there. Surely not even Jim Jefferies is powerful enough to have that sort of influence. (Mail Online)
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The walking personification of Hearts, he wasn't put on this earth for us to hold him dear.
And largely we don't like him.
But there's something about Jim.
Maybe it's because, in the constantly evolving modern game, the nostalgic sight of a Wallyford curmudgeon prowling SPL technical areas will likely become ever rarer.
Maybe it's simply that, like an ageing aunt you don't particularly care for, Jim is always there for the big moments.
The most famous result in Hibs history, that Tynecastle walloping that's echoed down the decades? There was Jim playing for Hearts.
When Hibs got relegated in 1998? There was JJ delivering a Scottish Cup to Tynecastle, adding the cyanide icing to that particularly bitter sponge.
When Alex McLeish and Franck Sauzee let Hibs fans dream again? There was Jim in the Hearts dugout, looking like a basset hound chewing a mosquito.
When Hibs ran rampant against Kilmarnock at Hampden? There was a miserable Jim providing inspiration for the massed choirs.
If nothing else Jim has been a totem, a rallying point for our ridicule and our wrath. And there's always a certain comfort in such constants.
The relationship might have changed of late. At half time during Sunday's derby, after the latest insipid display in Hibernian's comatose season, I was treated to some fine invective about the trick Hibs had missed in plumping for Pat Fenlon instead of Jefferies when Colin Calderwood took his leave.
That's very far from being a majority view. But a minority, in Sunday's case a vocal minority with a vocabulary that would make Dave Allen blush, saw him as the best man to do a short term job in another moment of Leith crisis.
Hibs chose a different path. Jumping from the SPL managerial carousel they opted for Fenlon and gave him the dual task of plotting a long term future for a club that's been rocked by a series of botched quick fixes while at the same time finding an immediate formula to keep Hibs in the SPL.
The latter job seemed tricky but also oddly simple. Turn a team without heart into a team that could fight for points. That was never going to be easy.
Create a team that, at a bare minimum, remained a touch better off than Dunfermline. Not so difficult.
Hibs have been poor this season. Very poor. But Dunfermline's weaknesses have saved Hibs from the relegation spot. Hibs own weaknesses have, in turn, ensured Dunfermline have not been cut adrift.
The story of the bottom six was set, a last waltz between Hibs and Dunfermline.
There was, I think, a satisfaction among some at Easter Road that the winter transfer window represented a job well done. A skin of the teeth job, maybe, but enough to outlast Dunfermline.
And then patient Dunfermline finally reached the end of the line with Jim McIntyre.
No time for a novice? Send for the time served gaffer.
Enter Jim Jefferies at East End Park.
If Fenlon's immediate remit has been to stay ahead of Dunfermline so Jefferies will have been given a clear instruction: reel Hibs in.
Both managers might eye St Mirren (without a win in 2012) or Inverness (six points from 21) and ponder the benefits of spreading the relegation load.
But for now it's boiled down to Hibs v Dunfermline. To, yet again, Hibs v Jim Jefferies.
The narrative has got more interesting: the back story stuffed with history, ancient and modern. Jefferies in a survival battle with Fenlon's assistant Billy Brown, for so long the Shirlie to his Pepsi.
Enough to cause a collective shudder in Leith, enough to set moustaches trembling in the Easter Road boardroom?
Probably.
Hearts fans have taken a glee that is quite unbecoming in pointing out to me that Hibs are now most certainly doomed.
Piffle. That might happen. But there are few guarantees.
Jefferies is far from universally lauded in Kilmarnock and, despite the surprise at his eventual dismissal, his record in his final few months at Hearts wasn't great.
He inherits a team that must be low on confidence, someone else's squad - a thin one at that - and players who haven't managed a home win this season.
Curing those ills won't be easy.
Can Jefferies do it?
Undoubtedly. He's a sound manager, knows what's needed in the SPL and he wouldn't have taken the job if he didn't think he could pull it off.
Maybe he'll be able to galvanise and cajole where McIntyre couldn't. A home game against St Mirren that looks winnable would give him the perfect start on Saturday.
Then he needs to negotiate Hearts and Dundee United before the league split. After that he'll relish the battle of the bottom six. And anything will be possible.
This is not mission impossible. The relegation battle wasn't over when Dunfermline elected to jettison McIntyre. The arrival of Jefferies will almost certainly ensure there are even more twists and turns ahead.
Two poor teams searching for enough inspiration to get them over the line.
Jim Jefferies and Hibs.
Hibs and Jim Jefferies.
It's game on yet again in this most enduring Scottish football duel.
> The Daily Mail reports this morning that Leigh Griffiths has left Hibs after sticking the heid on Pat Fenlon and punching Billy Brown. There, allegedly, is a twist and a turn right there. Surely not even Jim Jefferies is powerful enough to have that sort of influence. (Mail Online)
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
1962: Hibs Move To End Relegation
Outrage reigned last month when the idea of removing promotion and relegation from England's top flight was discussed.
The Guardian reported Richard Bevan, chief executive of the League Managers Association, as saying:
"There are a number of overseas-owned clubs already talking about bringing about the avoidance of promotion and relegation in the Premier League, If we have four or five more new owners, that could happen."
Turning the English Premier League into a franchise model would guarantee income, make it easier to see a return on investments. Even if that meant raising the drawbridge.
There was a blizzard of derision in the face of this affront to what's left of the purity of the sport.
Wigan's Dave Whelan went as far to suggest that he'd take his club out of the EPL if this ever happened.
I've said before - and, cause I like to go on a bit, I'll probably say again - even in its daft ideas modern football is far from original.
So this passage from Tom Wright's new book Hibernian: From Joe Baker to Turnbull's Tornadoes jumped out at me:
"At that time attendances on both sides of the border were in steady decline which was proving of great concern to the authorities, and at the end of January [1962] all 37 Scottish League clubs were invited to a meeting with the SFA and Scottish League to discuss any positive action that might go some way in arresting the shortfall.
"At this meeting it was revealed that Hibs had recently mailed a bombshell letter to the SFA outlining radical proposals to reduce the number of clubs in the First Division.
"Among these proposals was the suggestion that the guarantee for visiting First Division sides be raised to £1000 per game, or alternatively that the home club keep all the gate money.
"[Harry] Swan also proposed that there be no automatic relegation from, or promotion to, the top division. Entry would be by invitation only, with provision made for financial assistance for the smaller clubs if necessary. A recommendation that an independent enquiry into proposals be arranged was agreed.
"Another suggestion from Hibs was that a new end-of-season tournament should be organised which, in time, could expanded to include clubs from England and abroad."
Harry Swan, the long serving Hibs chairman of the time, is lauded for his visionary belief in foreign tours, floodlit games and European football.
Seems his ideas on relegation also made him a forerunner of some EPL money-men.
And I'm sure somebody keeps banging on about a British Cup as well.
> Another Swan nugget:
"Edinburgh had been selected to host the 1970 Commonwealth Games. A major drawback for the organisers was the lack of a purpose built sports arena in the city.
"Never slow to anticipate anything that could be of benefit to the football club, Harry Sawn, with the backing of a local councillor, came up with the idea that an entirely rebuilt Easter Road would be an option worth considering.
"To Swan's disappointment, the site at Meadowbank was selected, although he remained convinced that the city fathers had missed a great opportunity."
History, like a bad meal, has a habit of repeating on us.
Donate to the Scottish Football Blog Blogathon, 19 November 2011
The Guardian reported Richard Bevan, chief executive of the League Managers Association, as saying:
"There are a number of overseas-owned clubs already talking about bringing about the avoidance of promotion and relegation in the Premier League, If we have four or five more new owners, that could happen."
Turning the English Premier League into a franchise model would guarantee income, make it easier to see a return on investments. Even if that meant raising the drawbridge.
There was a blizzard of derision in the face of this affront to what's left of the purity of the sport.
Wigan's Dave Whelan went as far to suggest that he'd take his club out of the EPL if this ever happened.
I've said before - and, cause I like to go on a bit, I'll probably say again - even in its daft ideas modern football is far from original.
So this passage from Tom Wright's new book Hibernian: From Joe Baker to Turnbull's Tornadoes jumped out at me:
"At that time attendances on both sides of the border were in steady decline which was proving of great concern to the authorities, and at the end of January [1962] all 37 Scottish League clubs were invited to a meeting with the SFA and Scottish League to discuss any positive action that might go some way in arresting the shortfall.
"At this meeting it was revealed that Hibs had recently mailed a bombshell letter to the SFA outlining radical proposals to reduce the number of clubs in the First Division.
"Among these proposals was the suggestion that the guarantee for visiting First Division sides be raised to £1000 per game, or alternatively that the home club keep all the gate money.
"[Harry] Swan also proposed that there be no automatic relegation from, or promotion to, the top division. Entry would be by invitation only, with provision made for financial assistance for the smaller clubs if necessary. A recommendation that an independent enquiry into proposals be arranged was agreed.
"Another suggestion from Hibs was that a new end-of-season tournament should be organised which, in time, could expanded to include clubs from England and abroad."
Harry Swan, the long serving Hibs chairman of the time, is lauded for his visionary belief in foreign tours, floodlit games and European football.
Seems his ideas on relegation also made him a forerunner of some EPL money-men.
And I'm sure somebody keeps banging on about a British Cup as well.
> Another Swan nugget:
"Edinburgh had been selected to host the 1970 Commonwealth Games. A major drawback for the organisers was the lack of a purpose built sports arena in the city.
"Never slow to anticipate anything that could be of benefit to the football club, Harry Sawn, with the backing of a local councillor, came up with the idea that an entirely rebuilt Easter Road would be an option worth considering.
"To Swan's disappointment, the site at Meadowbank was selected, although he remained convinced that the city fathers had missed a great opportunity."
History, like a bad meal, has a habit of repeating on us.
Donate to the Scottish Football Blog Blogathon, 19 November 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
SPL: Hamilton's Fate Sealed
In the end Hamilton had left their late rally too late. A good couple of months too late.
A season that began with back to back 4-0 defeats ended last night in relegation with a game to spare.
St Johnstone ended up the executioners. But Hamilton had were the authors their own death warrant.
Recent form suggested Hamilton were determined to cling on, to make a real fight it. But there was too much to do.
Too much for a team that have been unfailingly ineffectual - and often just downright bad - this season.
The late display of some tenacity perhaps looked more impressive because it came in a season of such misery.
After losing eight goals in their two opening games Hamilton then won 1-0 at Inverness. Another six games passed without a win before they went to Motherwell and secured another 1-0 victory.
That game was on the 30th October. It wasn't until the 17th of April - 22 league games later - that Hamilton won again with a 2-1 victory at Easter Road.
It was that win over Hibs that sparked the mini revival, a draw against Aberdeen was then followed by a win away to St Mirren and the first home win of the season against Hibs.
None of it was ever likely to be enough. Their only real hope would have been if they could play Hibs every week.
What went wrong?
Players offering quality left and the resources were not there to replace them adequately.
The lack of a proper goalscorer will be mentioned in many a post mortem. And, self evidently, a return of 23 goals so far this season is woeful.
But St Johnstone share that dire scoring record. The Perth side have converted those 23 goals into 11 wins compared to Hamilton's 5 and 43 points to Hamilton's 26.
The lack of goals hasn't helped but it's not the only cause of Hamilton's failure. The dearth of quality runs throughout the team, the shortage of goals as much a symptom of problems elsewhere as it is a reason for their relegation.
The buck stops with the manager?
It does.
But Billy Reid has had Hamilton punching above their weight for a while now. He simply ran out of options. Does he now regret not leaving on one of the many occasions when his name was linked with other jobs?
Worryingly for a team about to drop into the First Division is Hamilton's lack of fight at times this season. Even the more creditable results during that long spell without a win seemed to be caused more by ineffective opposition than any triumph of Hamilton's collective will.
Pundits like to talk about teams on a bad run of form suddenly getting nothing but bad luck.
Maybe it consoles those in the game to resort to superstition rather than lay blame or start making accusations of incompetence.
But bad teams don't need bad luck or a witch's curse to go down. Being bad is often enough. And Hamilton have been bad this season.
All of which should serve as a wake up call to the clubs immediately above them.
There but for the grace of Hamilton's lack of ability go St Mirren, Aberdeen or Hibs.
Where next for Hamilton?
The First Division is an inhospitable place where penury rules and a long season beckons. Belts will need to be tightened. Rumours earlier this season suggested the Accies were but a couple more weeks of bad weather away from major financial collapse.
Maybe that was just whisper and supposition. But they certainly look set to let a major cost cutting excercise loose on a squad that is already struggling.
This year their average attendance has dropped below 3000. Only Gretna have suffered that ignominy in the SPL before. Even as they sought to establish themsevles as a fixture in the top flight Hamilton have been shedding fans.
Will relegation persuade them back?
A struggling squad likely to be further weakened, penny pinching the order of the day. And a real need to start somehow reconnecting with supporters.
Yesterday was a dark day for Hamilton.
Unfortunately for them I can't see anyone turning the light back on in a hurry.
A season that began with back to back 4-0 defeats ended last night in relegation with a game to spare.
St Johnstone ended up the executioners. But Hamilton had were the authors their own death warrant.
Recent form suggested Hamilton were determined to cling on, to make a real fight it. But there was too much to do.
Too much for a team that have been unfailingly ineffectual - and often just downright bad - this season.
The late display of some tenacity perhaps looked more impressive because it came in a season of such misery.
After losing eight goals in their two opening games Hamilton then won 1-0 at Inverness. Another six games passed without a win before they went to Motherwell and secured another 1-0 victory.
That game was on the 30th October. It wasn't until the 17th of April - 22 league games later - that Hamilton won again with a 2-1 victory at Easter Road.
It was that win over Hibs that sparked the mini revival, a draw against Aberdeen was then followed by a win away to St Mirren and the first home win of the season against Hibs.
None of it was ever likely to be enough. Their only real hope would have been if they could play Hibs every week.
What went wrong?
Players offering quality left and the resources were not there to replace them adequately.
The lack of a proper goalscorer will be mentioned in many a post mortem. And, self evidently, a return of 23 goals so far this season is woeful.
But St Johnstone share that dire scoring record. The Perth side have converted those 23 goals into 11 wins compared to Hamilton's 5 and 43 points to Hamilton's 26.
The lack of goals hasn't helped but it's not the only cause of Hamilton's failure. The dearth of quality runs throughout the team, the shortage of goals as much a symptom of problems elsewhere as it is a reason for their relegation.
The buck stops with the manager?
It does.
But Billy Reid has had Hamilton punching above their weight for a while now. He simply ran out of options. Does he now regret not leaving on one of the many occasions when his name was linked with other jobs?
Worryingly for a team about to drop into the First Division is Hamilton's lack of fight at times this season. Even the more creditable results during that long spell without a win seemed to be caused more by ineffective opposition than any triumph of Hamilton's collective will.
Pundits like to talk about teams on a bad run of form suddenly getting nothing but bad luck.
Maybe it consoles those in the game to resort to superstition rather than lay blame or start making accusations of incompetence.
But bad teams don't need bad luck or a witch's curse to go down. Being bad is often enough. And Hamilton have been bad this season.
All of which should serve as a wake up call to the clubs immediately above them.
There but for the grace of Hamilton's lack of ability go St Mirren, Aberdeen or Hibs.
Where next for Hamilton?
The First Division is an inhospitable place where penury rules and a long season beckons. Belts will need to be tightened. Rumours earlier this season suggested the Accies were but a couple more weeks of bad weather away from major financial collapse.
Maybe that was just whisper and supposition. But they certainly look set to let a major cost cutting excercise loose on a squad that is already struggling.
This year their average attendance has dropped below 3000. Only Gretna have suffered that ignominy in the SPL before. Even as they sought to establish themsevles as a fixture in the top flight Hamilton have been shedding fans.
Will relegation persuade them back?
A struggling squad likely to be further weakened, penny pinching the order of the day. And a real need to start somehow reconnecting with supporters.
Yesterday was a dark day for Hamilton.
Unfortunately for them I can't see anyone turning the light back on in a hurry.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
SPL Today: Hamilton Hang On
Aberdeen v St Johnstone
Rumours that Aberdeen had buggered off on an early summer holiday proved to be exaggerated in last week's win over Inverness. A little northern light in a bleak end to the season.And St Johnstone scored at Easter Road. Not once but twice. In a win. Winning football games is relatively simple when you score more than the opposition. If St Johnstone had managed to do it more regularly they wouldn't be slumming it in the SPL bottom six, the Scout jumble sale of Scottish football.
A return to normal service today? I think so. A low scoring - could be no scoring - draw.
Dundee Utd v Motherwell
Tasked last weekend with having their say in the title race Dundee United and Motherwell both received a gubbing.So that probably wasn't how they planned it.
A chance to get back on track today. Motherwell have enjoyed a bit of form over United in the last few weeks.
And United need a win today to keep a bit of pressure up on Hearts in third place.
Who'll react better to last weekend's sobering thumpings?
If Motherwell don't fall into the understandable trap of treading water until the cup final then this could be a decent game.
I'll back the home win.
Hamilton v Hibernian
About to zip the body bag, an attentive attendant noticed a slight pulse. And so, for the time being, Hamilton have been spared.Little room for error though. Three wins could save them. Two wins and a draw could save them. But it's really out of their hands.
What they really need is a home game against a side who look to have given up on this season.
So they'll extend a warm welcome to Hibs who have managed in a solitary point in their last three games. All those games at home, all against teams below them in the league.
In a rare burst of optimism I'd say Hibs were favourites here. But I suspect Hamilton's fight and spirit won't be matched by their opponents.
That could make the difference.
Draw.
Inverness CT v St Mirren
An away win and St Mirren are home and dry in the SPL relegation battle. Even a point could do it.Inverness were abject in losing to Aberdeen and euphoric in beating Celtic. How will they react today?
Home win.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Hamilton: Bank On Relegation
Well, they haven't quite. But it seems to be getting closer and closer.
Billy Reid's side now languish at the foot of the table, seven points adrift of St Mirren who have a game in hand.
And it's St Mirren they must concentrate on catching if they are to escape their fate.
St Johnstone, Aberdeen, Hibs and one of Inverness and Motherwell are going to be too far ahead of bottom place by the time of the split to be dragged back into the mire.
Hamilton's next four games are against St Johnstone, St Mirren, Rangers and Hibs.
At least two of them would appear to be must win matches if they are to claw themselves to some kind of parity with St Mirren before the last five games of the season.
St Mirren, whose next five league games include Hearts, Aberdeen and Celtic, look to have the more difficult pre-split run in. But I would be fairly confident that Danny Lennon will just need to avoid defeat in the game against Hamilton to maintain a comfortable distance between the sides.
In recent games reporters and pundits have been falling over themselves to patronise Hamilton for their performances and insist that their "luck must change."
Which is, frankly, bollocks.
When you're the condemned team there is no guarantee that your luck must change. None at all.
When you're the condemned team being denied a possible penalty shout at 1-1 against United is what happens.
When you're the condemned team playing well against Hibs only to lose goals when you've been attacking is what happens.
It's shit. But that is the luck you get.
But it's not just bad luck that sees Hamilton where they are.
Last night in Dundee they welcomed back Alex Neil. Club captain, big presence and important part of the successful years Hamilton have had.
With the greatest of respect though, Hamilton need a lot of things right now. And, as big an influence as Alex Neil exerts, he's not going to be able to save them.
At the moment I'm reading Moneyball by Michael Lewis. And it's fascinating about the use of sabermetrics in baseball.
But Hamilton don't need Wall Street traders or Harvard economists to tell them why they're failing.
They're deep in the doodah because they don't score goals. And when they do they can't convert them into wins.
In 14 home games this season Hamilton have scored only nine goals and won no games.
In 15 away games they've managed eight goals and two wins.
That's relegation stuff.
It's true that, because proven goalscorers cost money, Hamilton are not the only SPL side to struggle.
St Johnstone have scored only 18, just one more than Hamilton, this season. But they've managed to clinch five home wins and three away wins with a goal difference of -16 compared to Hamilton's -33.
So St Johnstone with only one goal more are six wins, 17 goals and 17 points better off.
St Mirren have scored five more goals than Hamilton but won three more games and seven more points with a goal difference of -23.
With what appear to be not disimilar attacking resources, the two Saints are making more of an impact in the SPL.
In fact, throughout Scotland, only Ross County, eighth in the First Division, have scored as few goals as Hamilton this season.
If you're not going to score goals at least shut up shop at the back. But Hamilton have struggled with that as well. The Accies have shipped 50 goals this season, three more than even Aberdeen whose statistics are skewed by a 9-0 humping at Celtic.
In the Scottish leagues only Stirling Albion, bottom of the first, have a goal difference as bad.
If you can't score and you struggle to defend then suddenly a 1-0 loss or 2-1 loss becomes an OK result, an improvement. 0-0 or 1-1 becomes a stunning result. That's not enough for Hamilton right now.
So Hamilton are destined to go down because they are crap?
Possibly. But crap teams have survived before. And at one stage this season it looked like Hibs were so poor that Hamilton might have been able to watch the Leith side hurtle past them into the First Division.
There are also mitigating circumstances. Since Hamilton won promotion they've lost James McCarthy and James McCarthur to England. Neil has missed most of this season through injury.
And the money has simply not been there to provide even adequate replacements.
Nor has there been money to find a goalscorer. Mickael Antoine-Curier and Flavio Paixao lead the Hamilton scoring charts. They've got three league goals each.
A lack of goals scored and too many goals conceded are the traits of Hamilton's season.
The hard luck stories and the pundits plaudits are perhaps less a symbol of their continued fight as a confirmation of their reality.
The players are responding, are finding the spirit to battle on. And it's still not good enough.
Some fans are blaming the manager, others give him the benefit of the doubt because of what he's achieved in other seasons.
The media and pundits will probably lean towards the latter verdict because Billy Reid is a good bloke and they don't care that much about Hamilton anyway.
To constantly upset the odds on a tight budget is a hard job though. Perhaps Reid has just run out of ideas or luck. Either way the situation is now so bleak that there is little he can do except try to keep the players plugging away and hope, like the fans, that something, anything, changes.
I hate to see any team going down. Been there, done that, still feel the scars.
But someone (most seasons) has to. And this season that looks very like being Hamilton.
* Sir Fred Goodwin, the former Royal Bank of Scotland chief executive, has taken out an injunction banning the media from calling him a banker, an MP has claimed. (The Mirror)
Doesn't say anything about rhyming slang though...
Monday, January 17, 2011
The SPL's Blue Monday: 10 Plus 12 Equals The Future
Blue Monday. The most depressing day of the year.
Fitting that it was today we heard another version of the SPL’s grand new plan for Scottish football.
Forget the two ten team leagues idea of a couple of weeks ago. The head honchos have listened to the near universal condemnation of that plan.
And come up with a top league of ten teams and an SPL 2 of twelve teams. A magnificent response to the weight of public opinion:
The Scottish Premier League (SPL) clubs today reaffirmed their commitment to the work of the Strategic Review Group to develop a structure for the whole of Scottish football.
Broad support was given to progressing a 10-team Premiership and a 12-team Championship at the top of a pyramid for Scottish football as the preferred option.
The SPL clubs have asked the executive team to further develop aspects of these proposals and to update the Strategic Review Group's report.
The SPL will now consult with the Scottish FA and the Scottish Football League and its clubs before a final decision by the SPL clubs.
STV report that Inverness, Hearts and Kilmarnock were the only clubs to vote for the 14 club compromise model.
So there we have it.
To listen to Neil Doncaster, SPL chief executive, this is the model that will have stadiums full to bursting, TV companies locked in a multi-million pound bidding war and the quality of football reawakening thoughts of a Scottish football golden age. And no doubt a number of postponements causes by blue snow.
It’s unclear how he expects this to happen. Nor does he seem to be able to adequately address the fears of the sheer boredom of watching your team play against the same nine clubs four times each season.
Doncaster says a new relegation model will keep the league refreshed. He ignores concerns that it will lead to clubs playing a dismal, safety first brand of football, petrified by the fear of relegation.
The only benefit of a 12 team “championship” would seem to be to deliver the SPL a majority of Scotland’s professional sides. That will make it much harder for the SFL to prevent a “merger” with the SPL.
If the 12 “championship” sides are also going to be playing each four times a season the idea of relegation/promotion play offs to keep the top flight refreshed seems disingenuous. Surely those extra eight games will favour the top flight teams going into the play-offs.
The SFA would seem pretty powerless to do anything about all this after the review they commissioned backed a ten team league. Henry McLeish has been utterly discredited by the way in which he allowed the SPL to hijack his report. Trusting a man who couldn’t run his own office expenses to save the national game was a mistake.
What will a pyramid system involve? Surely that's not just been tagged on to the proposals because it's something that a lot of people have been calling for. How is it going to work? What financial assurances will be in place for those clubs that don't make the final cut of 22?
Do we even know if this is the model that teams in, for example, in the current Third Division or in the non-professional leagues will see as the best for them to secure their futures.
And the SPL clubs?
Rod Petrie backs a ten team SPL even as he watches his Hibs side implode. It would break my heart but deliver some form of justice to this most non-footballing of men if Hibs were to start this brave new dawn in the lower division.
Peter Lawwell backs a return to the dark days of a ten team top league even as Celtic wage a war of modernisation against the SFA.
Martin Bain backs a ten team SPL even as Rangers continue to wade through a financial mire that may or may not include tax evasion.
These are just some of the people of influence who are prepared to ignore the views of the fans to chase a short term financial gain that nobody can be sure will materialise. The usual suspects with their usual blend of arrogance, self preservation and blind optimism in a get-rich-quick scheme.
I rather suspect that these men reply to emails that offer money transfers from bank accounts in Nigeria.
As someone pointed out to me today it is unusual to have such a widespread appetite for change in Scottish football. And yet somehow the SPL come up with a scheme that seems to appeal to nobody except Neil Doncaster, Ralph Topping, Henry McLeish and eight or nine SPL chairmen and chief executives.
They are prepared to fly in the face of public opinion to pursue a course of action that they are either unable or unwilling to properly explain to the fans.
We shouldn't be surprised that we are ignored. Football chairmen have being doing it for decades. But the idea that our opinions are forged in ignorance, that none of the counter proposals were championed out of a love for the game and a desire to see Scottish football improve is sickeningly arrogant and stubborn.
I don't believe fans should stop supporting their teams. I don't believe a boycott of clubs over league restructuring is necessarily a good idea.
But prices won't drop in the SPL's new era. The kick off times will still be awkward. The pressures of life will continue to crowd in on the football going habit. And I am concerned that the prospect of repetitive Premiership with tactics borne out of fear will see fans continue to drift away.
Standing at the crossroads Scottish football has, I suspect, chosen to travel up a dead end. Extricating ourselves from that folly might be beyond us.
The Scottish Football Blog News Feed
Fitting that it was today we heard another version of the SPL’s grand new plan for Scottish football.
Forget the two ten team leagues idea of a couple of weeks ago. The head honchos have listened to the near universal condemnation of that plan.
And come up with a top league of ten teams and an SPL 2 of twelve teams. A magnificent response to the weight of public opinion:
The Scottish Premier League (SPL) clubs today reaffirmed their commitment to the work of the Strategic Review Group to develop a structure for the whole of Scottish football.
Broad support was given to progressing a 10-team Premiership and a 12-team Championship at the top of a pyramid for Scottish football as the preferred option.
The SPL clubs have asked the executive team to further develop aspects of these proposals and to update the Strategic Review Group's report.
The SPL will now consult with the Scottish FA and the Scottish Football League and its clubs before a final decision by the SPL clubs.
STV report that Inverness, Hearts and Kilmarnock were the only clubs to vote for the 14 club compromise model.
So there we have it.
To listen to Neil Doncaster, SPL chief executive, this is the model that will have stadiums full to bursting, TV companies locked in a multi-million pound bidding war and the quality of football reawakening thoughts of a Scottish football golden age. And no doubt a number of postponements causes by blue snow.
It’s unclear how he expects this to happen. Nor does he seem to be able to adequately address the fears of the sheer boredom of watching your team play against the same nine clubs four times each season.
Doncaster says a new relegation model will keep the league refreshed. He ignores concerns that it will lead to clubs playing a dismal, safety first brand of football, petrified by the fear of relegation.
The only benefit of a 12 team “championship” would seem to be to deliver the SPL a majority of Scotland’s professional sides. That will make it much harder for the SFL to prevent a “merger” with the SPL.
If the 12 “championship” sides are also going to be playing each four times a season the idea of relegation/promotion play offs to keep the top flight refreshed seems disingenuous. Surely those extra eight games will favour the top flight teams going into the play-offs.
The SFA would seem pretty powerless to do anything about all this after the review they commissioned backed a ten team league. Henry McLeish has been utterly discredited by the way in which he allowed the SPL to hijack his report. Trusting a man who couldn’t run his own office expenses to save the national game was a mistake.
What will a pyramid system involve? Surely that's not just been tagged on to the proposals because it's something that a lot of people have been calling for. How is it going to work? What financial assurances will be in place for those clubs that don't make the final cut of 22?
Do we even know if this is the model that teams in, for example, in the current Third Division or in the non-professional leagues will see as the best for them to secure their futures.
And the SPL clubs?
Rod Petrie backs a ten team SPL even as he watches his Hibs side implode. It would break my heart but deliver some form of justice to this most non-footballing of men if Hibs were to start this brave new dawn in the lower division.
Peter Lawwell backs a return to the dark days of a ten team top league even as Celtic wage a war of modernisation against the SFA.
Martin Bain backs a ten team SPL even as Rangers continue to wade through a financial mire that may or may not include tax evasion.
These are just some of the people of influence who are prepared to ignore the views of the fans to chase a short term financial gain that nobody can be sure will materialise. The usual suspects with their usual blend of arrogance, self preservation and blind optimism in a get-rich-quick scheme.
I rather suspect that these men reply to emails that offer money transfers from bank accounts in Nigeria.
As someone pointed out to me today it is unusual to have such a widespread appetite for change in Scottish football. And yet somehow the SPL come up with a scheme that seems to appeal to nobody except Neil Doncaster, Ralph Topping, Henry McLeish and eight or nine SPL chairmen and chief executives.
They are prepared to fly in the face of public opinion to pursue a course of action that they are either unable or unwilling to properly explain to the fans.
We shouldn't be surprised that we are ignored. Football chairmen have being doing it for decades. But the idea that our opinions are forged in ignorance, that none of the counter proposals were championed out of a love for the game and a desire to see Scottish football improve is sickeningly arrogant and stubborn.
I don't believe fans should stop supporting their teams. I don't believe a boycott of clubs over league restructuring is necessarily a good idea.
But prices won't drop in the SPL's new era. The kick off times will still be awkward. The pressures of life will continue to crowd in on the football going habit. And I am concerned that the prospect of repetitive Premiership with tactics borne out of fear will see fans continue to drift away.
Standing at the crossroads Scottish football has, I suspect, chosen to travel up a dead end. Extricating ourselves from that folly might be beyond us.
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Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Play Off, Play Off And Play The Game
Walter Smith and Neil Lennon appear to have spent much of yesterday singing from the same hymn sheet.
Not Christmas carols at an ecumenical festive service.
More songs of condemnation aimed at Dundee United chairman Stephen Thompson.
Thompson has suggested that the SPL should look at play-offs. Not the oft mentioned relegation play offs. No, he's after championship deciding play offs between the top four sides at the end of each season.
Which has induced a certain hysteria among the Old Firm management. "Nonsense," "ludicrous" and "bollocks" sum up the tone of their responses.
Smith and Lennon have probably missed the point. Thompson would probably expect to see blue snow falling on Christmas Day before he sees his plan become a reality.
His aim, I think, is to convey his disappointment at the plans put forward by the SPL and to show that other systems are available. And maybe have some preprandial fun along the way.
He will also have known that he'd be criticised for cooking up a system that damages the integrity of the season long league championship. But he might argue that works at both ends of the table.
If clubs are expected to rubber stamp a play off system that includes play off for the teams finishing second and third bottom, why should the two dominant clubs not also be asked to jeapordise their duopoly at the top?
A valid enough argument, one that I suspect some non-Old Firm fans might be drawn to and a fairly intriguing way for Thompson to make his point.
Certainly it appears that the proposals put forward by the SPL and backed by Henry McLeish look to have no chance of carrying the 11 to 1 majority of SPL clubs that they require.
Back to the drawing board?
But maybe Thompson is on to something.
In 12 SPL campaigns Rangers and Celtic have finished in top two places 11 times with Rangers finishing third in the 2005/2006 season.
In those 12 seasons they have won 32 of the 36 trophies on offer in Scotland.
So even with a play off system they would still be expected to dominate, with seedings at the semi final stage giving a big chance of an extra, hugely meaningful, Old Firm game at Hampden each season. I've a feeling the broadcasters might like that.
But it is hard to make the argument that the third and fourth placed teams would deserve to be involved.
In the 12 SPL seasons the closest the third placed team has finished behind the second placed team is one point. That was in 2005/2006 when Rangers were breathing down Hearts' backs.
In every other season the Old Firm have filled the top two spots. The closest any side has come to them is the seven point gap achieved by Aberdeen in 2006/2007. That same year Hearts in fourth place were only nine points behind.
In the other ten seasons no team has come closer than 13 points behind whichever Old Firm side has occupied second. In seven seasons the gap has been 15 points or more. In 2002/2003 Hearts in third place finished 35 points behind and fourth placed Kilmarnock were 40 points behind.
The SPL's history suggests that third and fourth placed teams simply don't deserve a play off for the championship.
Can the same argument be made for teams at the other end of the table?
The gap between bottom and second and third bottom tends to be much closer.
In 2001/02 bottom club St Johnstone finished 19 points behind Motherwell, three years later Livingston were 15 points adrift of Motherwell and Dunfermline and Gretna's fairytale ended some 17 points behind Kilmarnock.
In no other season has there been more than ten points between the bottom club and the second bottom club and only twice has the gap between bottom and third bottom been ten points or more.
The SPL is tighter at the bottom than it as at the top. That, rightly or wrongly, makes a relegation play off easier to justify than a championship play off.
The teams in second and third bottom are likely to have spent the season looking more like relegation candidates than the teams in third and fourth place have looked like champions.
> In 2001/02 Celtic won the SPL with 103 points. Rangers in second had 85 points. Livingston were third with 58 points, Aberdeen fourth with 55.
It is difficult not to accept Lennon and Smith's arguments that league tables like that are so conclusive that giving Livingston and Aberdeen and even second placed Rangers the chance to take the title after two extra games is a bit odd.
Odd. But probably also quite amusing if you don't happen to be a Celtic fan.
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Not Christmas carols at an ecumenical festive service.
More songs of condemnation aimed at Dundee United chairman Stephen Thompson.
Thompson has suggested that the SPL should look at play-offs. Not the oft mentioned relegation play offs. No, he's after championship deciding play offs between the top four sides at the end of each season.
Which has induced a certain hysteria among the Old Firm management. "Nonsense," "ludicrous" and "bollocks" sum up the tone of their responses.
Smith and Lennon have probably missed the point. Thompson would probably expect to see blue snow falling on Christmas Day before he sees his plan become a reality.
His aim, I think, is to convey his disappointment at the plans put forward by the SPL and to show that other systems are available. And maybe have some preprandial fun along the way.
He will also have known that he'd be criticised for cooking up a system that damages the integrity of the season long league championship. But he might argue that works at both ends of the table.
If clubs are expected to rubber stamp a play off system that includes play off for the teams finishing second and third bottom, why should the two dominant clubs not also be asked to jeapordise their duopoly at the top?
A valid enough argument, one that I suspect some non-Old Firm fans might be drawn to and a fairly intriguing way for Thompson to make his point.
Certainly it appears that the proposals put forward by the SPL and backed by Henry McLeish look to have no chance of carrying the 11 to 1 majority of SPL clubs that they require.
Back to the drawing board?
Play Off Thoughts
Do I agree with a four team play off at the top of the SPL? No. Because I'm an old fashioned kind of guy and you either win the league or you don't. Simples.But maybe Thompson is on to something.
In 12 SPL campaigns Rangers and Celtic have finished in top two places 11 times with Rangers finishing third in the 2005/2006 season.
In those 12 seasons they have won 32 of the 36 trophies on offer in Scotland.
So even with a play off system they would still be expected to dominate, with seedings at the semi final stage giving a big chance of an extra, hugely meaningful, Old Firm game at Hampden each season. I've a feeling the broadcasters might like that.
But it is hard to make the argument that the third and fourth placed teams would deserve to be involved.
In the 12 SPL seasons the closest the third placed team has finished behind the second placed team is one point. That was in 2005/2006 when Rangers were breathing down Hearts' backs.
In every other season the Old Firm have filled the top two spots. The closest any side has come to them is the seven point gap achieved by Aberdeen in 2006/2007. That same year Hearts in fourth place were only nine points behind.
In the other ten seasons no team has come closer than 13 points behind whichever Old Firm side has occupied second. In seven seasons the gap has been 15 points or more. In 2002/2003 Hearts in third place finished 35 points behind and fourth placed Kilmarnock were 40 points behind.
The SPL's history suggests that third and fourth placed teams simply don't deserve a play off for the championship.
Can the same argument be made for teams at the other end of the table?
The gap between bottom and second and third bottom tends to be much closer.
In 2001/02 bottom club St Johnstone finished 19 points behind Motherwell, three years later Livingston were 15 points adrift of Motherwell and Dunfermline and Gretna's fairytale ended some 17 points behind Kilmarnock.
In no other season has there been more than ten points between the bottom club and the second bottom club and only twice has the gap between bottom and third bottom been ten points or more.
The SPL is tighter at the bottom than it as at the top. That, rightly or wrongly, makes a relegation play off easier to justify than a championship play off.
The teams in second and third bottom are likely to have spent the season looking more like relegation candidates than the teams in third and fourth place have looked like champions.
> In 2001/02 Celtic won the SPL with 103 points. Rangers in second had 85 points. Livingston were third with 58 points, Aberdeen fourth with 55.
It is difficult not to accept Lennon and Smith's arguments that league tables like that are so conclusive that giving Livingston and Aberdeen and even second placed Rangers the chance to take the title after two extra games is a bit odd.
Odd. But probably also quite amusing if you don't happen to be a Celtic fan.
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Sunday, May 09, 2010
Finished
Whatever the final table, we're now done.
Rangers have their trophy, Falkirk are relegated.
Spare a thought for Motherwell: anybody would think nine goals in the final two games would be enough to wrap up fourth place. Not quite.
Instead Hibs finally won a game to steal past Motherwell at the death.
I'll revisit my start of season predictions - and my laughable attempts to predict the outcomes of games - over the course of next week.
Our next big SPL fixture? Tomorrow. What will the clubs decide at their end of season gathering? Stay tuned.
Saturday, May 08, 2010
Big Bairns don't cry
The relegation post.
Don't like writing these. Always feel like it's intruding on private grief. Or tempting fate for next season.
But it has to be done.
So farewell Falkirk. Unable to repeat last season's final day heroics, a no scoring draw with Kilmarnock sealed their fate.
Some of us feared for them from the start of the season. The appointment of Eddie May was an admirable move by a club that likes to reward its own and craves stability. But it was also the cheap move. It proved costly.
May had neither the experience nor the funds to solve the problems that saw Falkirk sink into the relegation battle last season.
37 goals was enough for 38 points and third bottom a year ago. 31 goals was enough for only 31 points and relegation this year. How fitting that it was a goalless draw that tipped them over the edge.
Let's not leave May shouldering all the blame. He hardly inherited a world beating squad from John Hughes and key players were allowed to leave without the resources for adequate replacements.
When May bowed to the inevitable the club turned to Steven Pressley. He brought more cohesion and his outspoken attacks on anyone and everyone brought the bunker mentality that was needed.
But here was another untried manager trying to turn things around. It was a risk. In both appointments the Falkirk board might have pointed to the presence of Alex Smith as a wise head to help bring stability. It seems that neither May or Pressley were quick to seek his counsel.
So it has come to this. The more I write, the more I feel a depressing inevitability to the whole thing. I'm sure some Falkirk fans will feel the same.
No matter how pretty the passing, how pure the ideals, a team as blunt as Falkirk will always struggle. Last season was the warning. Someone at the club chose not to listen.
So now they find themselves stuck in the First Division. Where to from here? League reconstruction might yet save them.
If not they'll be looking to win a competitive league with an even tighter budget and a still relatively untried manager.
I wish them good luck. I suspect they'll need it.
Don't like writing these. Always feel like it's intruding on private grief. Or tempting fate for next season.
But it has to be done.
So farewell Falkirk. Unable to repeat last season's final day heroics, a no scoring draw with Kilmarnock sealed their fate.
Some of us feared for them from the start of the season. The appointment of Eddie May was an admirable move by a club that likes to reward its own and craves stability. But it was also the cheap move. It proved costly.
May had neither the experience nor the funds to solve the problems that saw Falkirk sink into the relegation battle last season.
37 goals was enough for 38 points and third bottom a year ago. 31 goals was enough for only 31 points and relegation this year. How fitting that it was a goalless draw that tipped them over the edge.
Let's not leave May shouldering all the blame. He hardly inherited a world beating squad from John Hughes and key players were allowed to leave without the resources for adequate replacements.
When May bowed to the inevitable the club turned to Steven Pressley. He brought more cohesion and his outspoken attacks on anyone and everyone brought the bunker mentality that was needed.
But here was another untried manager trying to turn things around. It was a risk. In both appointments the Falkirk board might have pointed to the presence of Alex Smith as a wise head to help bring stability. It seems that neither May or Pressley were quick to seek his counsel.
So it has come to this. The more I write, the more I feel a depressing inevitability to the whole thing. I'm sure some Falkirk fans will feel the same.
No matter how pretty the passing, how pure the ideals, a team as blunt as Falkirk will always struggle. Last season was the warning. Someone at the club chose not to listen.
So now they find themselves stuck in the First Division. Where to from here? League reconstruction might yet save them.
If not they'll be looking to win a competitive league with an even tighter budget and a still relatively untried manager.
I wish them good luck. I suspect they'll need it.
Happy Days
As Kilmarnock and Falkirk square up in the big relegation battle today, a quick look back on their last big clash.
I always remember this is a being a cracking day. Although it would have been only the second or third cup final day that I marked with quantities of lager so my memories might be slightly askew.
I do remember wanting Falkirk to win (I wasn't upset that they lost, Scottish Cup disappointment is part of my DNA) and that Andy Gray (not that one) was man of the match.
Losing manager Alex Totten remains a Falkirk legend. Winning manager Bobby Williamson went on to eat. A lot.
I always remember this is a being a cracking day. Although it would have been only the second or third cup final day that I marked with quantities of lager so my memories might be slightly askew.
I do remember wanting Falkirk to win (I wasn't upset that they lost, Scottish Cup disappointment is part of my DNA) and that Andy Gray (not that one) was man of the match.
Losing manager Alex Totten remains a Falkirk legend. Winning manager Bobby Williamson went on to eat. A lot.
Survival Saturday
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The penultimate Scottish Football Blog prediction post of the SPL season. And, as the title suggests, it's Survival Saturday.With so much to play for at Rugby Park today, Kilmarnock and Falkirk have been promoted to the big, big SPL slot of 12.30 on a Saturday lunchtime.
This, of course, is progress. In my day you only got Saint and Greavsie with your Heinz Spaghetti Hoops. Now you get the two worst teams in the SPL battling out to discover which is less bad over your rocket and organic goat's cheese focaccia.
Kilmarnock v Falkirk
A win for either side will be enough. A loss will probably mean some new kind of financial hell visited on one of our oldest clubs. Unless there's an SPL extension in the summer. How handy would that be?A draw would be enough for Kilmarnock but given their cavalier attitude to football this season I'm sure they'll go straight for the jugular. Isn't that right, Mr Calderwood?
Seriously though. As a football fan you have to sympathise. One of these teams, and more importantly, their fans are going to have a totally shit day. And that's not nice.
Us neutrals on the other hand. Well, we can sit back and enjoy the drama and tension. Maybe not the fitba' but certainly the drama and the tension. It'll be like election night all over again.
Prediction: I dunno. I'm leaning towards Kilmarnock. But Falkirk pulled it off last year. So I'll back them to do it again this year. Away win.
St Johnstone v Hamilton
Who needs relegation battles. This is the big one. The battle for seventh place. And the chance of finishing on more points than the team in sixth place. But still finishing seventh.Financially that will mean a lot to both these clubs (and was probably not budgeted for) so it is not without importance.
I'd hope for a decent game. Party time in Perth. A celebration of a decent season. A home win.
St Mirren v Aberdeen
If Aberdeen win this one and Kilmarnock beat Falkirk then St Mirren will finish second bottom. That's the kind of stakes we're playing for here. I'd guess both teams will just want this to be over. Draw.Sunday, May 02, 2010
Up and down
This blog is no place for another man's wet dreams.
But I'll point you in the direction of Inside Left's latest post anyway.
Seb - along with dreaming of Aberdeen winning the SPL - has been looking at promotion and relegation over the years.
It dovetails nicely with my post on Old Firm dominance and shows that clubs have struggled to retain their SPL status when promoted.
One of the things that struck me was that Inverness have this year become the first club since Hibs - inspired by Russell Latapy and Franck Sauzee, memories are indeed made of this - to get relegated and bounce straight back up.
I'd say that gives some indication of the strength of the First Division and nudges us towards the idea that an extension of the SPL wouldn't lead to a reduction in quality. (Quality in this instance being an entirely relative term.)
Still disagree with the Inside Left stance on the split, mind!
- In my comment on Seb's post I mention the stadia requirements for the SPL. With clubs struggling to fill their stadiums in the SPL is there not an argument to remove these restrictions to give the whole of the First Division a chance to aim for promotion?
I know this is harsh on the clubs who have had to scrimp, save and pile up debts to develop their grounds. But that argument doesn't change the fact that it is a rule that needs to be rethought. And if scrapping the rule means we save a few more clubs from racking up the kind of debts that would make Colin Hendry weep then that must be a good thing.
But I'll point you in the direction of Inside Left's latest post anyway.
Seb - along with dreaming of Aberdeen winning the SPL - has been looking at promotion and relegation over the years.
It dovetails nicely with my post on Old Firm dominance and shows that clubs have struggled to retain their SPL status when promoted.
One of the things that struck me was that Inverness have this year become the first club since Hibs - inspired by Russell Latapy and Franck Sauzee, memories are indeed made of this - to get relegated and bounce straight back up.
I'd say that gives some indication of the strength of the First Division and nudges us towards the idea that an extension of the SPL wouldn't lead to a reduction in quality. (Quality in this instance being an entirely relative term.)
Still disagree with the Inside Left stance on the split, mind!
- In my comment on Seb's post I mention the stadia requirements for the SPL. With clubs struggling to fill their stadiums in the SPL is there not an argument to remove these restrictions to give the whole of the First Division a chance to aim for promotion?
I know this is harsh on the clubs who have had to scrimp, save and pile up debts to develop their grounds. But that argument doesn't change the fact that it is a rule that needs to be rethought. And if scrapping the rule means we save a few more clubs from racking up the kind of debts that would make Colin Hendry weep then that must be a good thing.
Saturday, May 01, 2010
Edinburgh Derby Day
The Big(gish) Preview: Hibs v Hearts
A dull Edinburgh May Day, a dull Edinburgh derby?
The law of averages comes into play here. And these games are often tetchy, grindy affairs devoid of much entertainment.
True Hearts impressed at Tynecastle with their 2-1 going on 6-0 win in the last meeting but the two draws earlier in the season might be more of a clue to the outcome.
Although the law of averages suggest that Hibs are surely going to get a win sometime. Can John Hughes outwit his old mentor Jim Jefferies?
The pain of being taught a derby day lesson at Tynecastle will still rankle with Hughes but he, like his team, has looked devoid of ideas lately.
My money - which is worth about as much Greece's money - would be on a draw.
Elsewhere in the top six
Celtic v Motherwell: Everything points to a home win. I didn't get where I am today by following pointers. Draw
Dundee United v Rangers: With league positions now sorted for these two, Rangers can enjoy their austerity celebrations while United look forward to a cup final. Away win.
The Bottom Six
Aberdeen v Hamilton: Both are now playing for position. Hamilton will look back on this season with rather more fondness than Aberdeen but I think Aberdeen might have a bit more desire to finish strongly. Home win.
Falkirk v St Mirren: The post-split fixtures threw Falkirk a juicy bone with this one. Can they take advantage? They remain very much in the hole, as St Mirren claw their way to safety. Falkirk need to haul them back. I can see another twist here. Home win.
Kilmarnock v St Johnstone: Like Cristiano Ronaldo the Kilmarnock fans will make sure they keep a tranny close at hand for this one. (Note to lawyers: allegedly.) Jimmy Calderwood actually came to mind yesterday when I noted with interest that he has inspired Tony Blair's new skin tone. Jimmy will certainly be hoping he's not left red faced this evening! (Boom, boom.)
I fear he might be though. I can't see Kilmarnock getting more than a draw but suspect this is an away win.
The relegation battle will go on.
Tale of the tape: A morale dwindling one out of six last week suggests you can take my talk of the law of averages with a tablespoon of salt. 65 from 159 and when the rubber duck is this season going to end.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
It's now or never
Given their current predicament and the recent SPL trend for the more mature manager we might have expected Falkirk to go from May to December.Instead they've replaced the inexperienced Eddie May with the inexperienced Steven Pressley.
It's a major vote of confidence from the Falkirk board, entrusting their SPL survival to a newcomer who only gave up playing a few months ago.
Well, no, it isn't really. It's a cheap option made by a club that must already be budgeting for the cost of relegation. If Elvis keeps them up then he'll have exceeded expectations. If they go down then they are not lumbered with a big contract for an established manager.
Pressley's contract runs only until the end of the season. At that point the club will know if they need to replace him with someone who can win them promotion.
Joining him in the dugout is Alex Smith who filled the Director of Football role with Eddie May. Smith's role never seemed well defined when the new team was unveiled following John Hughes' departure for Easter Road. As assistant coach he should at least be able to use his experience in a practical role without stepping on any toes.
And what experience he has. Fittingly he was born on Christmas Day because he is as old as Santa. No, he's not really but he is older than old Father Time himself. Or Craig Brown as he's known in Motherwell.
The Falkirk fans, although aware that the club have taken the Poundland approach to managerial recruitment even in this darkest of hours, should be comforted by Smith's emergence in a more hands on role. Eddie May seemed intent on asserting his own authority where a calmer, older head might have offered sage advice.
But Elvis is the figurehead and he'll need to deal with the suspicious minds (chortle, chortle) on the terraces. He used his press conference today to predict Falkirk's survival, hardly a surprise as few managers have ever taken a job while predicting a club's relegation.
Sadly fighting talk doesn't distract anyone from the gravity of the situation. Falkirk have 15 games to avoid Heartbreak Hotel, to escape Crying In The Chapel, to avoid the relegation that would make even a Wooden Heart bleed. (That's enough.)
Nothing we've seen from them so far suggests that this Falkirk team are capable of building the momentum that will propel them to safety. Steven Pressley doesn't appear to be the kind of guy who shirks a challenge.
Just as well, because he somehow needs to bring confidence to a team with none, consistency to a side bogged down in mediocrity and persuade a group of players of varying abilities that they can somehow develop the cohesiveness and spirit that they surely need to stand even a fighting chance of condemning someone else to relegation.
I wish him well but I don't envy him the job. I think he might surprise us at times, that results might pick up a little bit. But I've got a horrible feeling that, come May, we'll be saying that "Falkirk have left the building."
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Dunfermline Close the Gap - But Saints Can Cling On
St Mirren 0 – 1 Dunfermline (McManus)
Time for me to eat my hat then? Having written Dunfermline off, they’re doing their best to prove me wrong.
This crucial victory, in a classic "six pointer," has moved them to within a point of St Mirren and their current momentum suggests that they might kick off next season’s European campaign in the SPL.
But, and there’s always a but, I still think St Mirren will pull it off. For both teams, and excuse the cliché, the next three games are cup finals. Dunfermline have been in that situation since the turn of the year. And, with the added factor of their epically convoluted semi final against Hibs, I think the players are going to run out of steam.
With the recent sale of Love Street St Mirren could probably, at least financially, cope with relegation better than Dunfermline. But, with the memory of the struggles to get promoted still fresh, I can see the players digging deep and clinging on – just.
Rather like Gretna and St Johnstone, early season form will be rewarded at the expense of a late push.
What then happens to Dunfermline is anybody’s guess. The Scottish Cup Final and the UEFA Cup will swell the coffers. But which players will stay is unclear. Stephen Kenny has proved he is a decent manager and he will fancy chances in the First Division – but other clubs will already have noted his potential.
So there it is – another of my unpredictable predictions. Dunfermline to go down. And, if I'm pushed, to stay down for some time.
The crowd tonight was fantastic - over 10,000 filled Love Street. Both teams will be looking for more of the same over the next couple of weeks.
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