SPL: Dundee United v Aberdeen

According to the encyclopedic @SPLstats Saturday will be the 87th time Dundee United have hosted Aberdeen in a league game at Tannadice.

In the previous 86 matches there have been 29 home wins, 28 away win and 29 draws.

The insperable New Firm.

They've been plotting different routes through the SPL this season though.

United started with 3-0 wins over Hibs and Dundee. Then they flatlined.

0-0 draws with Ross County and St Johnstone have been joined by a 3-1 defeat at Kilmarnock, a 3-0 defeat at home to Hearts and a 4-0 defeat at Inverness.

Not scoring and conceding too many. A nasty combination.

It's hardly critical. After losing out to the double whammy of Celtic's American jaunt and Motherwell's creaky power supply they have two - tough - games in hand and are only seven points off second place.

But few would have tipped them to be second bottom of the league in a season where many expected them to lead the chasing pack in their pursuit of Celtic.

Injuries haven't helped. It's been United's misfortune to have held on to key players in the summer only to lose some of them in the early part of the season.

Few SPL clubs can sustain their form with big names missing from their starting XI.

The real surprise is how poor a job United have made of papering over the cracks.

With their game before the international break postponed they should have had time to regroup and recover from the run of bad results.

Unfortunately they'll have had to do that without Peter Houston, absent on Scotland duty. Not much of a break from bleak results that, although he might soon have more time to spend with his club.

If Houston's United have weakened over the opening weeks of the season, Craig Brown's Aberdeen have only got stronger.

Early on it looked as though Brown had assembled a sound squad but not quite worked out how to make them click.

But they are undefeated since their opening day loss to Celtic, and while four home draws looks worryingly similar to seasons past wins against Hibs at home and Kilmarnock away have lifted them to third in the table.

Brown, whose past achievements as Scotland manager take on greater significance with every flunked qualifying campaign, has bought wisely and looks to be blending experience and youth quite well.

There might be occassions when Aberdeen don't set the pulse racing - Craig's too old to cope with 3-3 draws with Motherwell each week - but they might just prove to be one of the more consistently effective sides this SPL season.

So tomorrow looks like being a historically tight result with recent form favouring the visitors and the bookies favouring the home side.

The draw is 12/5, an Aberdeen win is 12/5 while a United victory is 11/10.

Strikes me this is one of those games that could either be an absolute belter or the dampest of 0-0 squibs (7/1).

Aberdeen have won the last two head-to-heads though and carried the better form into international week.

Given United's scoring issues I'm tempted by a 2-0 Aberdeen win at 14/1 but there's a tendency for both sides to score in these games so 2-1 Aberdeen at 10/1 it is.

13/2 for a half time draw/full time Aberdeen combo might also have a certain allure.

Did we think back in 1998 that more than a decade on Craig Brown would still be the last Scottish manager to take the national team to a major championship?

Did we heck as like.

So I'll back the master to pile on more misery for the apprentice's apprentice.

I might take the half time draw/full time draw at 4/1 just in case though.

All odds from Ladbrokes #gameon

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Scotland: Starting blocks

What is a good start to a qualifying campaign?

That's been the subject of intense debate this week as Scotland prepare for another tilt at reaching a major championship.

Maybe not much of a debate actually.

First we had Craig Levein's assistant Peter Houston suggesting that four points from six against Serbia and Macedonia would be just swell.

Then we had just about everyone bellowing: "Catch yourself on Pedro, you muppet. It's six points or bust ya baldy numpty."

Which might lead one to the conclusion that six points is at least essential to heal the growing - but not yet irreparable - rift between the current Scotland regime and a public that has never been adoring.

We certainly know about bad starts.

Ten years ago today we found ourselves 2-0 down inside 12 minutes against the Faroe Islands in a performance of abject incompetence.

The team snatched a draw but Berti Vogts would forever have the stench of the "fool of the Faroes" hanging over him. And he reached a play-off.

So a good start is important.

In the current run of seven of failed qualifying campaign we've won two opening games, drawn four and lost one.

The most depressing thing is how many early points have been dropped to teams that we wouldn't consider qualification rivals (we tend to always consider ourselves as contenders, even as the law of averages and the blunt mallet of reality threaten to impudently destroy our unshakeable belief):

• Euro 2000: Lithuania, drew 0-0 (Away)
• World Cup 2002: Latvia, won 1-0 (Away)
• Euro 2004: Faroe Islands, drew 2-2 (Away)
• World Cup 2006: Slovenia, drew 0-0 (Away)
• Euro 2008: Faroe Islands, won 6-0 (Home)
• World Cup 2010: Macedonia, lost 1-0 (Away)
• Euro 2012: Lithuania, drew 0-0 (Away)

Compare and contrast: In that golden age (did we fully appreciate it as such at the time?) when we qualified for nine tournaments in 28 years we kicked off with seven wins, one draw and just one defeat:

• 1970 World Cup: Austria, won 2-0 (Home)
• 1974 World Cup: Denmark, won 4-1 (Away)
• 1978 World Cup: Czechoslovakia, won 2-0 (Away)
• 1982 World Cup: Sweden, won 1-0 (Away)
• 1986 World Cup: Iceland, won 3-0 (Home)
• 1990 World Cup: Norway, won 2-1 (Away)
• Euro 1992: Romania, won 2-1 (Home)
• Euro 1996: Finland, won 2-0 (Away) 
• 1998 World Cup: Austria, drew 0-0 (Away)

We didn't qualify for every tournament in those days though. And when we failed it was often after a bad start.

In six opening games in qualifying disappointments between 1970 and 1994 we lost three, won two and drew one. One of the wins (against East Germany in the 1984 European Champions qualifiers) was the only game we won in the group:

• Euro 1972: Denmark, won 1-0 (Home)
• Euro 1976: Spain, lost 2-1 (Home)
• Euro 1980: Austria, lost 3-2 (Away)
• Euro 1984: East Germany, won 2-0 (Home)
• Euro 1988: Bulgaria, drew 0-0 (Home)
• 1994 World Cup: Switzerland, lost 3-1 (Away)

From the qualifying stage of the 1970 World Cup we've had seven opening wins out of nine in successful campaigns. And just four opening wins out of 13 in unsuccessful campaigns.

International football is - as the cliché has it - much changed in the last 40 years. Some of our qualifications came from groups of just three teams. Some of them belied a good start and turned into desperate, last gasp battles to get through.

That makes it hard to draw conclusions from Scotland's opening game record through the years.

But it does harden the opinion that failing to beat Serbia at home will nudge our qualification chances to the impossible end of difficult.

We'll just need to trust that Levein and Houston realise that as well.

Otherwise we're doomed. And so are they.

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SPL Advent: Dundee United

Is that a tangerine in your stocking or are you just pleased to see me? Through the great SPL Advent calendar window today: Dundee United.

Consistency, as Motherwell's progress this season has shown, can work wonders in the SPL.

But it eludes three quarters of the league.

The result is a table packed tightly from fourth place to bottom place. That's not a sign of excitement but a sign of groaning mediocrity, a league of well matched journeymen doing nothing very special.

Yet this state of affairs is not without its advantages. A wee run of good results can transform a middling season into an alright season, deliver a team from the evil of the bottom six to the heavenly wonders of the top six.

Which is pretty much exactly where Dundee United find themselves midway through a season of some frustration.

Early on it looked as if Peter Houston was but a round of clear-the-air-talks from having more time to spend with Craig Levein.

He survived. But it would be a stretch to say he has thrived.

There have been some nice wins and some heartening wins. There's also been a few abject performances.

United have yet to win back-to-back SPL games. They've won five, drawn six and lost seven. Only nine goals conceded at home would ordinarily be a heartening record. But they've only managed to score seven, the lowest tally in the league.

Houston is often accused of having inherited his predecessor's timidity but only Rangers have scored more goals away from home. The downside is that only Inverness have conceded more on the road.

It's all amounted to a big sigh and a theatrical shrug of the shoulders kind of a season.

When he seemed set to lose out in an internal conflagration at Tannadice Houston was keen to point to what he's achieved since taking over.

He might also point to mitigating circumstances, of the difficulty of rebuilding a team when big players move on and finances dictate that replacements must be found on a shoestring.

United find themselves in transition, that near permanent state that haunts most SPL clubs.

Garry Kenneth has announced his desire to leave. Scott Allan seems set to head down south. The trend towards transition will continue, the impoverished Scottish game making it ever more difficult to build for the future.

Houston still has some impressive quality at his disposal.

Now he needs to show that his refashioned team can use those assets to come close delivering the results of the last two seasons.

Are you hanging up your stocking on the wall?

27 years ago this week United were narrowly losing a blockbuster of a European tie to Manchester United.

A 5-4 aggregate defeat and a crowd of over 21,000 at Tannadice.

Sturrock, Narey, McAlpine...

Aye, it's not just Aberdeen who can dream of what might have been and what once was.

But not even Santa can turn back the clock.

So the far more prosaic gift of a wee run of a wins, top six security and a bit more excitement at home is probably the order of the day.

I'm not convinced Houston is doing anything particularly wrong. An injury free winter and some consistency would delight him. Not very dramatic. But the difference between a good season, a meh season and a bad season for United.

The Scottish Football Blog blogathon took place in November in aid of Alzheimer Scotland and the Homeless World Cup. You can still donate to help two great causes.

SPL: Houston Channels Hannibal

Chelsea and Sunderland march proudly over the border to ensure that Rangers and Hibs are otherwise occupied as this stuttering SPL start continues.

Rangers are out of the Champions League, a result that also marked Madjid Bougherra's last game for the club.

Hearts lost Jim Jefferies, gained Paulo Sergio, gambolled through their European tie and landed a Europa League play-off with the Hotspurs of Tottenham. Quite a week at Tynecastle.

Europe and the SPL's early start opt out bonus means we're reduced to only two games today and two games tomorrow. Unsatisfactory.

Dundee United v St Mirren

And so Blackburn finally ended the protracted saga of David Goodwillie's transfer from United. The result - bafflingly enraged Rangers supporters aside - is a lessening of the Tannadice debt mountain but a team robbed of their greatest talent.

Some of what's left isn't too shoddy though as they proved with a Goodwillie-less win at Tynecastle last week.

In an ideal world Peter Houston would still have Goodwillie at his disposal. In a slightly less ideal world he would be allowed to splash the cash.

But this isn't an ideal world. It's not even close to an ideal world. It's the world of Scottish football.

Managers must adapt, make do and mend. An SPL boss is a one man footballing A-Team, locked in a fruit store in a one horse town and using only watermelons to build a weapon capable of stopping the US military police. You just need to hope your plan comes together.

While Houston will wheel and deal in the remainder of the transfer window, promotion from within has proved it's worth a couple of million times over this week.

So optimism abounds at Tannadice that another gem has been unvovered in Scott Allan who made his debut against Hearts last week.

As the door closes on one United career so the door opens on another? We'll see. It might be dictated by financial reality but it's hard to knock United's commitment to youth.

They still need to win games though and the most immediate challenge comes in the shape of Danny Lennon's St Mirren.

If Peter Houston is about to become the transfer window's John 'Hannibal' Smith, there were those last season who thought Lennon was the SPL's 'Howlin' Mad' Murdock. He seems determined to prove them wrong.

After missing a number of chances in their goalless curtain raiser with Dunfermline, St Mirren stayed true to team selection and brand of football to beat Aberdeen last weekend.

The season is but a babe in arms as yet but four points from two games will offer succour to those who felt that Lennon emerged from the summer as well as any SPL manager.

One of his new signings Nigel Hasselbank - one of the Scottish Football Blog's '12 to Watch' - scored the goal that dispatched Aberdeen in a win that had Lennon talking of a top six finish this season.

Tannadice is the perfect place to put such talk to the test, a sterner test than that offered by a disappointing Aberdeen last week.

St Mirren are unlikely to find United as bereft of ideas as Aberdeen were and while four points from two games is a fine start Danny Lennon might be concerned that they've scored only one goal despite dominating for long periods of those two games.

Maybe they're just waiting to score a barrel load one of these days. But I suspect not today. Home win.

Dunfermline v Inverness

As unsatisfactory as the SPL opt-out policies have been, last week at least offered Dunfermline the chance to see off Annan in the Ever Changing Moniker League Cup.

Annika Sorenstam during her days of glory on the women's golf tour used to spend hours and hours practicing putts of within just a couple of feet. The reason? To get used to the sound of the ball hitting hole. Dunfermline will hope that winning football matches is similarly habit forming.

How Inverness will have wished they had last weekend off. A home defeat is always unfortunate, it's made worse when it comes at the start of a season when people are wondering if your squad really does convince.

It's made even worse if it comes against a team who never prospered in the Highlands. It might have been a sclaffed late goal and dodgy goalkeeping that gave Hibs a last gasp victory but it's exactly the sort of game that Inverness would not have expected to lose last season.

Even this early in the season that will be a worry for Terry Butcher. Losing can become a habit as well. Chris Hogg has returned after being released last season to bolster a defence that has shipped four goals in two games. No goals scored means the pressure grows on players like Gregory Tade to fill the Adam Rooney shaped hole up front.

Dunfermline huffed and puffed their way to a scoreless draw against St Mirren, a lesson perhaps that there can be re-entry issues for teams returning to the SPL.

Two teams looking for a first win ending the afternoon with a stalemate? Possibly. But with Inverness struggling this is a big chance for Dunfermline to offer us a statement of intent. Home win.

SPL: Dundee United v Kilmarnock

The second of today’s two opening Sunday fixtures and look at what’s going on with Dundee United and Kilmarnock.

The Game

Let’s quickly gloss over any jokes about how much the early start to the SPL helped Dundee United’s European campaign.

After starting with a flurry on Thursday they eventually slipped out of the competition by the narrowest of margins. Agonising for the team and fans - and the co-efficient - but also a useful taste of competitive action that Kilmarnock haven’t had.

That and home advantage should be enough for United to get underway in the league with a win.

Dundee United

An SPL manager must turn himself into a miracle working apothecary in the summer, somehow concocting a wonder potion that salve the wounds left by the sudden removal of a team’s vital organs.

At Tannadice the departures of Craig Conway, Morgaro Gomis, Prince Buaben and David Robertson have gone straight to the heart of the team, ripping apart one of the SPL’s most impressive midfields.

Talent, of course, remains and David Goodwillie is still a United player despite a swelter of rumours linking him with a move elsewhere. Can they hold out until the transfer window close? Their ability to keep him will have a telling influence on the story of their season.

Elsewhere Willo Flood returns after a fairly unsatisfactory stint away from Tannadice - amazing the number of players returning to pastures old this SPL season - and John Rankin arrives from an underwhelming time at Hibs. Flood will be tasked with offering some of what was lost with the departure of Conway, Rankin with ensuring a much changed midfield has the ability to adapt and survive.

If Goodwillie does depart then the ability of Johnny Russell to become an integral part of the side will be incredibly important as United’s impressive commitment to youth continues.

I remain unconvinced about Peter Houston’s decision to serve his country at the side of Craig Levein, the feeling persists that even entering his second full season as manager he remains slightly in the shadow of his predecessor.

But now, more than ever, this is his team and the evidence of last season suggests that he’s comfortable in the role.

Comfortable in the league as well. The Goodwillie question might still hang heavy in the Dundee air but with or without their crown jewel United are a top six side.

Kilmarnock

If Peter Houston feels he’s been dealt a dud hand by the transfer fates then pity poor Kenny Shiels, confirmed in the job and immediately charged with rebuilding a side that so impressed last season.

It’s been cheerio to Alexei Eremenko, Craig Bryson, Frazer Wright, Medhi Taouil, Jamie Hamill and Mahamadou Sissoko, a series of departures that would worry any SPL club.

And these were players who contributed to Kilmarnock’s turnaround from SPL relegation favourites to one of the successes of last season.

So an overhaul has been required. And Shiels has stepped up to the plate. In comes Gary Harkins carrying high hopes on the back of his performances for Dundee, Danny Buijis is shipped in from ADO Den Haag, Paul Heffernan will be charged with scoring goals just like Connor Sammon (another missing part of last season’s jigsaw) did before him.

James Dayton will look to build on the fine reputation he was building before injury brutally curtailed last season for him.

When money is tight and players are lost such a rate it makes building on successes a very tricky thing for sides like Kilmarnock.

Kenny Shiels will know all that. He knows too how teams can spring a surprise just like Kilmarnock did last season when was assistant to Mixu Paatelainen. He’s drafted in Jimmy Nicholl as his own number two which looks an astute move.

I can’t see Kilmarnock repeating last season’s success but Shiels has backed himself to build a new team. If he’s right then they should be comfortable enough in the jam packed middle of the SPL.

Stick In The Mud

Was this the moment a rather unfortunate Gary Hooper became a convert for summer football?

Amusing as it is to see a professional football fall over his own feet, there must be sympathy for all the players being asked to perform on pitches in the state Tannadice was in on Sunday.

Not criticising Dundee United, lots of pitches are in a terrible state and the weather has been following an unsettling pattern of crap through shocking to bloody awful. United actually did well to get the game played on a pitch that, but for certain areas, could probably have been even worse.

And it was commendable the way both teams managed to put on a very watchable game of football.

Slight concerns about something in the BBC match report though:

Both managers had expressed their surprise that the game was given the go-ahead after three pitch inspections, with United's Peter Houston suggesting that pressure had been put on referee Mike Tumilty because of the SPL's fixture backlog.

Talk of summer football might remain slightly facetious. And the weather has been slightly freakish.

But the quality of the football will not improve if we're having to force games through because we're worried about the number of games we need to cram in.

A winter break doesn't solve that problem. Maybe an earlier start to the season with a couple of two week breaks scheduled for the spring, expressly reserved to clear any outstanding backlog, would be a better option.

It's not easy to find a workable solution. But it would be nice if the SPL's Brains Trust could come up with something.

Amusing as it can be, we don't actually pay our money to see a player of Hooper's ability fall flat on his face.

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