Scotland: Kenny Miller retires

There we are then.

12 years, 69 caps, 18 goals and a final memory of a goal to savour at Wembley.

Farewell Kenny Miller, Scotland striker.

If the announcement of Miller's international retirement saw many of the old criticisms of his ability resurface, there was also a strong swell of appreciation for the service he's given.

His timing is impeccable. With no 2014 World Cup for Scotland he leaves on the personal high of scoring in his solitary appearance against England.

And he forces Gordon Strachan to face the remaining qualifiers without trusted experience up front. The manager might not have been ready for the immediate future without Kenny Miller. With no choice, he has to build for the next qualifying tournament. To the end, we could say, Miller has served the greater good of the Scotland cause.

The greater good. Servant.

Running themes of the tributes to Miller. The willing servant who'd turn up - in an era when not turning up is common - and give his all whatever the circumstances.

Often those circumstances involved him playing as a lone striker. Lacking service, chasing, running, waiting for the support of midfielders who often failed to arrive.

He did all that time and again. For seven different managers. Decent managers, bad managers, befuddled managers. All trusted Miller at different times.

Miller repaid them by getting on with the job, perhaps coming close to a public strop only when dropped for an empty space when Craig Levein chose 4-6-0 in Prague.

He saw off managerial changes as surely as he survived recurring episodes of public clamour when a new rival appeared on the goalscoring charts.

For a decade Miller outlasted Scotland managers and outlasted so many of those rivals for his shirt.

He never escaped the brickbats though.

His thoroughly modern club career maybe didn't help. An apparent 'have bank account, will travel' attitude might make the most of football's new opportunities but it doesn't create folk heroes.

Rangers-Celtic-Rangers swapsies also have the power to alienate large constituencies, often at the same time.

Then there is the simpler reason. That Kenny Miller just wasn't "Scotland quality."

He frustrated this writer often enough. He should have more than 18 goals, should be higher than sixth on the all time scoring list.

Profligate Kenny Miller, caught in two minds and choosing the third option. Kenny Miller, the non-scoring lone striker, enduring long dry spells.

We could never pretend that he was among the greats of the past. But he wasn't playing with great players either.

His decade as a regular choice coincided with Scotland's decade in the wilderness.

No major tournaments, some embarrassing performances, more than a few dire results.

Miller was part of all of that but successive managers saw him as the best of what they had as Scotland tried to get to grips with their reduced standing.

He could hardly be blamed for getting picked so regularly. And we couldn't accuse him of not giving his all when he was picked.

A decent player giving of his best. That sounds unspectacular but it's been an unspectacular decade.

Some good memories, some bad memories and very often little to show in games when hard graft just wasn't enough.

Kenny Miller's story has been the Scotland story for the last decade.

If the players he's now stepped aside for can harness their potential with Miller's commitment then the next decade might just offer more reward.

So thanks for the effort, Kenny. And thanks for calling it quits at the right time.

Croatia v Scotland: Gord almighty

It was a result predicted only by the deluded and Scottish Sun sage Kenny Millar.

Gordon Strachan conceded at full time that a win for Croatia was 90 percent certain.

Somehow Scotland made the most of their ten percent chance.

Percentages figured highly. It was, said captain James Morrison, a victory earned by players giving 110 percent to the cause.

Like Morrison I'm not a mathematician, but even I can see that our 110 trumps their 90 percent.

He'd wrapped a sound point in the cliche though. During the slump of recent years we've fielded teams full of hard workers but too often under George Burley and Craig Levein individual endeavour failed to become a cohesive collective effort.

Not last night. A team effort and a team win.

A meaningless win? Our qualifying race has already been run, last night was typically Scottish: glory when there's nothing left to play for.

Not quite. It certainly wasn't a meaningless game, Robert Snodgrass rammed a hole in Croatia's attempt to win automatic qualification.

This wasn't Scotland taking three points from a dead rubber.

It also gave an inexperienced squad a taste of beating a team ranked above them in the qualifying draw. The first time we've pulled that off since the win over Ukraine in 2007.

Only Alan Hutton and Shaun Maloney from last night's team featured in that 3-1 win at Hampden, four managers and almost six years ago.

When failing in the tougher games is all you know it becomes a hard habit to break.

A tangible benefit from last night is remaining in the group of fourth ranked nations for the next round of qualifiers - an anaemic measure of success but an achievement that prevents a hard task becoming even more difficult.

But the real meaning of the win in Zagreb might only become evident over time.

Strachan has looked frustrated since taking over as manager. Under Levein Scotland were going backwards, the new manager needed a platform to halt the decline.

What he got were limp performances from ever changing squads. The run up to the Croatian game was similarly disrupted by call offs but it also featured a fortnight free from domestic football, almost two weeks for the coaching staff and a young squad to figure out how to get the best from each other.

And if, as I mentioned before the game, Strachan's previous conservatism in selection attracted criticism he showed more flexibility here.

It's true that many changes were forced on him. But he appeared to embrace them and passed that adaptability on to his players.

He spoke last night of giving Russell Martin four weeks notice of his switch to the centre of defence. Morrison was asked to not only take on the responsibility of captain but also take on more of the defensive burden in midfield than he is used to.

Leigh Griffiths was fairly peripheral in attack but ceaseless in his effort, backing Strachan's decision not to send a late SOS to Canada for the experienced but rusty Kenny Miller.

Searching for his first win, Strachan wasn't risk averse. It's hard to imagine his immediate predecessors making the same choices or getting the same response from the players.

We should, of course, be wary of false dawns.

Strachan himself spoke of a performance that still leaves room for improvement. It's also true that Croatia stuttered when big chances came their way.

We remain second bottom of the group and we'll watch yet another tournament on the TV. There are still weaknesses and a lack of cover in certain areas.

What we might have seen is an evolution of the squad, players beginning to react to the demands of a new manager and that manager figuring out how to communicate his methods to a young squad, a squad full of players that will face our next qualification challenge.

Certainly Strachan has found his platform. He now has to build on it.

If we can have more days like this, of waking up to hangovers delivered by celebratory toasts instead of drowned sorrows, he'll be doing something right.

Croatia v Scotland: Gord help us

A two week build up to a Scotland qualifying match. Mounting excitement, ballooning optimism.

Not quite. More a growing sense of foreboding, a lengthening injury list, the challenge posed by Croatia looming ever larger.

That fortnight between the end of the domestic season and tonight's game always looked like it might prove problematic.

A squad already missing some familiar faces has had seven more withdrawals. When the players picked as cover fall by the wayside what is Gordon Strachan left with?

The game already looked daunting. Scotland are without a win in this campaign. Croatia are joint top and looking for their sixth win in seven games. We've only won six games in our last 22 competitive matches.

The experts at betting-news.co.uk will not be falling over themselves to back Scotland.

Much as I find the FIFA rankings an odd tool, recent form suggests the scores of team separating Scotland from Croatia's lofty top five position don't represent skewed statistics.

Strachan has spoken of the likelihood that Croatia will dominate possession. Hardly earth shattering tactical insight but a prospect that becomes grimmer still when you look at the lack of cover in central defence and the dearth of defensive midfielders.

It's also true that many griped that Strachan's first Scotland squads were too fixated on the conservatism that so infuriated his predecessor's detractors.

The manager might argue that it was a conservatism borne from a desire for consistency, to build a platform for a managed transition.

He'll be forced to embrace change tonight though. A new captain, a squad with a mighty 14 international goals between them, inexperience throughout.

Compare and contrast. Croatia have goals, experience, the confidence that comes from winning games and recent qualifications for major championships.

Their manager, Igor Stimac, said this week that "the Scotland team is a dangerous one. I will not allow you to take points from here."

A statement that straddles the fine line between the generosity of a welcoming host and the threatening demeanour of a nightclub bouncer.

But he'll know that - with Belgium enjoying a superior goal difference at the top of the table - a Croatian defeat tonight is unthinkable.

Just one point would do us. It looks depressingly likely that we'll need Stimac's team to show a collective generosity to their visitors for us to get even that.

Iceland, Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania. The teams we've beaten in qualifiers in the last five years. Croatia won't fancy joining that list.

Gordon Strachan would be forgiven for occasionally thinking that there are better ways to earn a living than this.

As much I hope for a pleasant shock, tonight looks like providing more evidence of the scale of his task rather than any answers about he's going to fix a broken team.

Tonight might just leave us all in need of a holiday.

Belgium v Scotland: Levein leaving?

Scotland's road to Rio. A dismal football journey.

We got about as far as the five year old who runs away from home and sits down under the whirligig on the back green to wait for the bus.

The five year old might have shown more sophistication.

It's hardly a surprise that we looked so adrift against an impressive Belgium. In the goalless first half an amazing combination of Allan McGregor's excellence, Belgian profligacy and Scottish luck combined to protect our goal.

Somehow we could almost have nicked the lead.

We wouldn't have deserved it.

The second half wore on. Still we hung on at 0-0.

Could we dare to dream the impossible dream?

No. A rather prosaic opener followed by a moment to savour from a defender.

2-0.

That flattered us. We'd kept the deadlock despite chasing shadows. We were unlikely to hold out.

As I wrote yesterday Craig Levein is a manager destined to fail even when all he wants to do is avoid defeat.

They were just better than us. Painfully so.

We might ask how Belgium have developed such rich talent while Scotland have excelled in nothing more than pedestrianism.

A fair question. A conundrum that the SFA have asked Mark Wotte to solve.

That will take time. Already he's lost a couple of coaches who fans, as innocently concerned bystanders, might have thought would be his key lieutenants.

But we shouldn't prejudge. The Wotte revolution has yet to play out and we can only trust that the people he surrounds himself with, the new and the old, are guided by a great feeling of love for our game.

That's for a new generation, the footballing future we all dream of.

A vision Craig Levein has bought into. He sees a footballing recovery quickened by the input of the national manager.

That's admirable and I've no reason to doubt the strength of his desire to shape our future.

But somewhere between our glorious yesterdays (never hugely glorious) and our golden tomorrows (perhaps not hugely golden) we need a footballing present.

And Craig Levein can no longer play a part in the here and now of the national team.

He's failed.

We're bottom of the group.

He's failed miserably.

12 qualifying games. Three wins.

International football is tough. We accept that. We accept that losing in Belgium is a predictable enough fate for Scotland these days.

We shouldn't castigate Levein for losing home and away to Spain.

But consider this; Lithuania away; Czech Republic away; Czech Republic home; Serbia home; Macedonia home; Wales away.

If Scotland were making progress we'd be winning some of these games.

Certainly winning more than Liechtenstein (twice) and Lithuania at home.

The players we have at our disposal should be getting better results.

The manager must take the blame.

Not everyone agrees.

"Change manager but suffer the same miserable fate, for there's more wrong with our game than Craig Levein," they say.

They're right. There is more than Craig Levein wrong with Scottish football.

But when a man isn't tired of the mediocrity of Craig Levein's national side, he is tired of Scotland as a football team of any worth.

I'm not tired of Scotland.

I remember our last five major championship appearances.

Craig Levein was tasked with getting us closer to those halcyon days.

He's failed.

A decent guy who cares about Scotland, wants us to thrive, wants to contribute to our footballing future.

That's Craig Levein.

But he's also a failure.

And failure can only be rewarded with dismissal.

Will the SFA sack Craig Levein?

Scotland's next qualifier is in March. Levein still has a lucrative amount of time left on his contract, the apparent support of his players and a determination to go absolutely nowhere.

But Scotland are out of the World Cup and the SFA have to sell tickets for a series of pointless competitive games.

All of which makes me think that Levein will stumble on until January before a "mutual consent" press release is sent out from Hampden.

Craig Levein's successor?

A brave man indeed.

We all have opinions.

"Knowledge was divided among the Scots, like bread in a besieged town, to every man a mouthful, to no man a bellyful."

Harsh that. But we'll come up with a lot of names and none of us will have the definitive answer.

Consensus is unlikely.

Levein's great lesson might be that having the guts to take the job doesn't necessarily mean being brave enough to do the job justice.

Belgium v Scotland: Defying the odds

In one of the many radio discussions in the aftermath of Scotland's damaging defeat against Wales it was suggested that we usually pull off one big result in each qualifying game.

A trip to Belgium to play the group leaders would be that sort of game.

It would also chime perfectly with the idea of Scottish football that still just about survives in the popular imagination, of a national team that fails when they're expected to thrive and thrives when they're expected to fail.

The experience of recent qualifying campaigns means that idea of Scotland can no longer stand up to scrutiny.

Liechtenstein twice, Lithuania, Macedonia, Iceland twice. They are the biggest games we've been winning lately.

For the last "big" result we must look back to the qualifiers for Euro 2008 and those two victories over France in 2006 and 2007.

Captain Darren Fletcher has that Scotland can "definitely" beat Belgium tonight.

And we can, of course we can. In a one off match anything can happen.

It's just that there is no evidence that this squad led by this manager is ever going to enjoy that sort of victory.

Having built a squad cowed into timidity because of his acceptance of what he sees as our limitations, Levein has little right to expect the players to come roaring out in defiance in a game he needs to win to have any chance of keeping his job.

He's written his own script. Now he'll need to sit with the rest of us and see how a team whose weaknesses he's inflated and whose strengths he's nullified fares against an extravagantly talented team which is finally, in this qualifying campaign, getting the results its individual components deserve.

Scotland go into this game at 8/1 to win with the hosts at 4/11.

You need to plough through eight Belgian players - Christian Benteke, Kevin Mirallas, Ilombe Mboyo, Jelle Vossen, Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Moussa Dembele, Dries Mertens - before you find Steven Fletcher and Kenny Miller on the first goalscorer list, the pair of them joined by Nacer Chadli at 9/1.

That alone suggests that notions of "keeping it tight" for as long as possible is going to be a hell of an ask.

Can we be inspired by those French games? Ride our luck, defend like dervishes, find the inspiration to take and hold a lead?

A 1-0 win for Scotland at 16/1?

How I'd love that to look like a good bet.

But I can't convince myself that it does.

We have to hope that Scotland's players will have been stung by Friday night, a sense, however misguided, of injustice and a desire to save the manager they profess to have so much faith in.

But that would be to discount the inspiration Belgium can take from the momentum they've built up, home advantage and the scent of blood from a reeling Scotland.

A 3-0 Belgium win is priced at 8/1. That's the same as any Scotland win.

Depressingly a thumping of that sort looks more likely than even the narrowest of Scottish wins.

I can't bring myself to bet against Scotland.

So I'll probably plump for 0-0 at 10/1.

But I'll do so with the heavy heart of a punter who knows that even when he sets out not to avoid defeat this is a Scotland manager destined to fail.

All odds from Ladbrokes #gameon

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Wales v Scotland: It's over

Another day, another Scotland game. Another night spent wailing "why us" into a pint glass.

If two home draws left our dreams of qualifying for the 2014 World Cup in ruins, defeat in Wales left a barren wasteland where those dreams used to be.

But we were unlucky.

Gareth Bale dived and Steven Fletcher's perfectly legitimate goal should have stood and would have knocked the stuffing out of Wales.

Perhaps. But the problem with indulging in a counter factual analysis of a game is that the other side can do the same.

Shaun Maloney has confirmed he touched Bale - "I can only apologise to my team-mates" - and would Fletcher's goal have proved decisive if Wales had already been allowed back in with the penalty that wasn't given against Christophe Berra?

But we're football fans. And football fans can't resist bemoaning that "we'd have been brilliant if it wasn't for the dodgy referee, the cheating millionaire and the blind linesman."

It becomes a problem if the "woe is me" approach becomes a habit though. And we might be at risk of doing that with Scotland.

Because Scotland are woeful. And nobody currently involved with the team seems able to halt the decline.

We couldn't have asked for better set of opening fixtures. In the horse trading involved in deciding the group schedule, Scotland won hands down.

At home against Serbia and Macedonia then a trip down to Wales.

A golden opportunity to get some wins, to build momentum.

We've blown it spectacularly.

Toothless and disjointed at Hampden, last night we edged clear in a tight first half and then, as this Scottish team so often do, retreated into our shells.

It became clearer and clearer as the second half wore on: this was ten men and one Gareth Bale playing against eleven molluscs.

The manager will speak of his disappointment, ruminate on how a bad refereeing call or two and a wonder strike robbed us of having the points to match the mythical progress he sees in his team.

A useful mask for him. A mask that is perhaps even legitimised by fans lining up to feed into the "we were hard done by" narrative.

It's not enough though.

If Levein came out and called Charlie Adam a fat, lazy bastard for his attempt to match Bale's run for the second goal I would respect him more.

If he announced that the cross shy Alan Hutton was only to be referred to as Dracula from now on I would think more of him.

The players would be miffed, the media would be in a frenzy.

But at least the manager would be giving some indication that he's not overseeing a squad where mediocrity is accepted.

Last night's game might be the one that finally does for the Levein era.

It probably shouldn't have lasted this long.

The way he tried to put a gloss on those two opening draws, the way the players cravenly nodded their agreement.

The clear message was that this was a collective with no clue about qualifying for a major championship. A manager and a squad that just don't get what's required of them.

Giving it your best shot and failing is one thing. Scotland don't offer that now. They perform poorly and that translates into poor results. When the final whistle blows they shrug their shoulders and say "this isn't over."

That clueless complacency shows on the pitch. And it comes from the coach.

Craig Levein has won three qualifying games in eleven attempts. Three. Two of them narrow wins against Liechtenstein.

Yet still he speaks of progress and prays for some luck to come his way. His players agree with him and his employers stand by him.

It's not bad luck and it's certainly not progress. We're not even standing still. We're in reverse with a group of players that should be more competitive than they ever really look.

Another qualifying campaign slips by. Seven have now passed by since we last played at a major tournament.

The art of qualification, once so ingrained in successive Scottish teams, has disappeared. A generation of players don't know how to get the job done.

They need the guidance of someone who does. Instead they fall into line behind the uninspiring leadership of someone who thinks a 0-0 draw at home is a decent way to launch a World Cup bid.

Not for the first time under this manager Scotland looked like they didn't know how to win the game last night.

Don't know how to win. Don't know how to qualify. It's becoming the Scottish way.

And for every day Levein remains in the post the deeper the culture of mediocrity will seep and the harder the recovery will become.

Wales v Scotland: On a mission

Rarely in his footballing life would Craig Levein have persuaded PG Wodehouse that he was wrong about Scotsmen and rays of sunshine.

There's nothing wrong with that.

A thrawn prickliness might even be a good thing in a job where expectation so often finds an enemy in reality.

Yet what might have been a positive has grown into more and more of an encumbrance the longer Levein has been the manager of Scotland.

He seems to have retreated into himself. And, given how uncomfortable he looks most of the time, found little solace in that solitude.

It might be that he cuts a very different figure when he's alone with his squad.

But in public he too often looks distrusting, suspicious or, more worryingly, lost.

International managers can take time to grow into the job. A period of adjustment is often required.

Yet Levein spends too much time looking almost diminished by the job, clinging ever more grimly to the concept of progress as qualifying results point to nothing of the kind.

Like many managers who find themselves fighting for their jobs he's also developed a reverse Midas touch.

There will be no rapprochement with Steven Fletcher? And so Fletcher will start the season on fire.

Jordan Rhodes isn't quite ready for international football? No sooner said than Rhodes will bag a couple of goals.

There are eight or nine players ahead of Kris Commons? Time for Commons to become a stand-out performer for Celtic.

It makes the manager look like the sort of chap you wouldn't stand next to in a casino.

And it makes the volte-face on Fletcher look like the last throw of the dice, a desperate man chasing his losses.

That might all seem a bit harsh. We're just two games into this qualifying campaign. But Levein has never built the momentum required to have a reservoir of goodwill.

Two opening draws at home might not kill a qualifying campaign or end a manager's career.

They certainly rip away the margin of error though.

Levein wouldn't have to go if Scotland don't beat Wales tonight. But there would be little point in carrying on. Mission impossible would have become mission miraculous. And Scottish football is all out of miracles.

The overwhelming impression taken from the festivals of boredom against Macedonia and Serbia was of a team that didn't quite know how it was supposed to be playing. And probably didn't have the belief to do much anyway.

Levein has to change that against Wales.

The return of Darren Fletcher and Scott Brown should galvanise. Form, if not the manager's conviction, should also guarantee the inclusion of Steven Fletcher from the start.

Not playing Fletcher up front would be to give Wales an unnecessary boost.

And Scotland should avoid doing that. If the beleaguered Craig Levein is currently out beleaguered by anyone it might just be Wales manager Chris Coleman.

Four games, four defeats and an absolute tanking from Serbia last time out.

Levein could just produce a picture of the unsmiling Coleman visage whenever he's asked how bad a start Scotland had.

Which is encouraging. But it makes the prospect of not beating Wales even worse. And Scotland are often at their most masochistic in games that should be won.

Wales are not without threats of their own, the thought of Gareth Bale isolating Alan Hutton is keeping me awake at night, but Coleman seems to have brought only disarray to the job.

"It's not a must win game" repeats Levein - a party line not being toed by every player - but it is. For both teams and probably for both managers.

Can Scotland do it?

Yes. They can. Although I've got a horrible feeling this one is far more up for grabs than we'd like it to be.

The odds agree. 13/8 for either team to win, 9/4 the draw.

Gareth Bale, Steve Morison, Steven Fletcher and Kenny Miller all 6/1 as first goalscorer.

Tight.

But let us leave the negativity at door of the manager's press conference.

The power of positive thought tells me that Fletcher will start up front and Shaun Maloney (10/1 first goalscorer) will be there to support him.

Scotland to win and Maloney to score is available at 8/1.

A score prediction?

Scotland to win 2-0 at 11/1.

That's your mission Mr Levein.

I hope you've chosen to accept it.

All odds from Ladbrokes #gameon

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Scotland v Serbia: A winning start?

Finally we're ready to start.

Just as well. Given the rate we've been careering through the English divisions looking for fit defenders, Craig Levein's next call would have been to the reserve left back in Wallsend's under-11 squad.

He can step away from the phone now.

Levein's squad might not have room for the player that grabs the most headlines and maybe there is abundant talent missing for reasons both sensible and inane.

Yet it's the squad that the manager thinks offers him options enough to get off to the good start he desperately needs.

It's his job to back himself to pick the right players to take care of the task in hand.

In Scottish football the benefit of the doubt is rationed. Only yesterday Levein was being hauled over the Twitter and forum coals for failing to pick an injured player. The giant diddy.

That might make triumphs all the sweeter for a character such as Levein, an often contradictory mix of thin-skinned petulance and thrawn stubbornness.

Not that international management is a personality contest (he'd lose), it's about qualifying for tournaments (he might lose, he might yet succeed.)

Some say Levein has reinvigorated the squad with a comradeship that George Burley dismantled. Some say he's not up to the task.

It might be that he's used his club experience - at clubs fighting against dominant forces - to build an esprit de corps.

That might also be that can count against us at crucial times, our default dig-in, grind it out, one-for-all mentality proving hard to shake off in games we could dominate. In crucial games that can mean missed opportunities.

Still, Levein's had a qualification failure to learn from.

He should now have his blueprint for success. It's to be hoped he's also accepted the need for some flexibility (the right sort of flexibility. Not a 4-6-0 sort of flexibility.)

This looks a tight group but not an impossible one. Ladbrokes currently price us at 7/1 to qualify.

Belgium bulge with talent. Croatia are ranked in Fifa's - compromised - top ten. Serbia are ranked above us. As (just) are Wales. Macedonia have troubled us before.

A tough group, with the potential for more than a few bruising games. But Serbia have only one game in their last ten. Croatia two in their last seven and Belgium four in ten.

Scotland have won five from ten.

Opponents differ. Lies, damned lies and can't-be-arsed friendlies.

Yet none of these sides could be considered aristocrats of the international game at the moment (Belgium might be ennobled soon enough). There's no need for Scotland to cower like paupers.

A look at the odds for Saturday's clash with Serbia would seem to confirm that there's not much to choose between some of the Group A teams.

Scotland are 13/8 to win. The draw is 9/4. And Serbia are 13/8 to win.

Different things worry me. We seem to have produced a glut of midfielders but fewer defenders.

We're not full of goals. Kenny Miller - and it will be a shock if he doesn't start up front on his own - has 16 goals at a rate of one every 3.75 games.

That's far from prolific but it's more than the rest of the squad have managed between them.

In Jordan Rhodes we would seem to have goals in reserve but we don't yet know how Levein will opt to use him.

We're unlikely to want for grit and determination. Inspiration might be in short supply. And we're still not sure how the manager would handle it if he realised it was at his disposal.

In the recent friendly with Australia Gary Caldwell was played as a defensive midfielder - he'd sort of played there in the infamous Czech game but in reality we were all defenders that night - which might be a clue to the manager's thinking.

He's taken some stick over the years has Gary. But I'd rather have him at the heart of the defence. I suspect we might well see Christophe Berra and Andy Webster in there though with Caldwell cast as the protector to let the attacking midfielders - Shaun Maloney, Robert Snodgrass, James Morrison, Steven Naismith? - to lay down their lives in support of Kenny Miller.

As we search for opportunity in our midfield possibilities the Serbs don't seem overly fussed.

Borussia Dortmund defender Nevan Subutic has mentioned this Serbian team having "technical quality" on their side.

Which is a bit insulting to his hosts. But probably fair enough.

This is an evolving Serbia though, a squad even shorter on goals than Scotland yet still packed with players from successful club sides.

I'm torn on this one. Starting off with two home games is an advantage we need to grasp.

Failing to beat Serbia would be unfortunate. Losing would take a sledgehammer to our hopes.

But am I confident?

Serbia have failed to score in seven of their last ten games and have scored just four goals across those games.


That encourages me.

Enough to back a Scotland win. Ah, go on then.

Scotland to win 1-0 at 13/2?

Tempting.

Scotland to win and James Morrison to score at 8/1.

That would do for me.

And, for now, for Craig Levein and some of his critics.

All odds from Ladbrokes

www.gambleaware.co.uk

Scotland: Starting blocks

What is a good start to a qualifying campaign?

That's been the subject of intense debate this week as Scotland prepare for another tilt at reaching a major championship.

Maybe not much of a debate actually.

First we had Craig Levein's assistant Peter Houston suggesting that four points from six against Serbia and Macedonia would be just swell.

Then we had just about everyone bellowing: "Catch yourself on Pedro, you muppet. It's six points or bust ya baldy numpty."

Which might lead one to the conclusion that six points is at least essential to heal the growing - but not yet irreparable - rift between the current Scotland regime and a public that has never been adoring.

We certainly know about bad starts.

Ten years ago today we found ourselves 2-0 down inside 12 minutes against the Faroe Islands in a performance of abject incompetence.

The team snatched a draw but Berti Vogts would forever have the stench of the "fool of the Faroes" hanging over him. And he reached a play-off.

So a good start is important.

In the current run of seven of failed qualifying campaign we've won two opening games, drawn four and lost one.

The most depressing thing is how many early points have been dropped to teams that we wouldn't consider qualification rivals (we tend to always consider ourselves as contenders, even as the law of averages and the blunt mallet of reality threaten to impudently destroy our unshakeable belief):

• Euro 2000: Lithuania, drew 0-0 (Away)
• World Cup 2002: Latvia, won 1-0 (Away)
• Euro 2004: Faroe Islands, drew 2-2 (Away)
• World Cup 2006: Slovenia, drew 0-0 (Away)
• Euro 2008: Faroe Islands, won 6-0 (Home)
• World Cup 2010: Macedonia, lost 1-0 (Away)
• Euro 2012: Lithuania, drew 0-0 (Away)

Compare and contrast: In that golden age (did we fully appreciate it as such at the time?) when we qualified for nine tournaments in 28 years we kicked off with seven wins, one draw and just one defeat:

• 1970 World Cup: Austria, won 2-0 (Home)
• 1974 World Cup: Denmark, won 4-1 (Away)
• 1978 World Cup: Czechoslovakia, won 2-0 (Away)
• 1982 World Cup: Sweden, won 1-0 (Away)
• 1986 World Cup: Iceland, won 3-0 (Home)
• 1990 World Cup: Norway, won 2-1 (Away)
• Euro 1992: Romania, won 2-1 (Home)
• Euro 1996: Finland, won 2-0 (Away) 
• 1998 World Cup: Austria, drew 0-0 (Away)

We didn't qualify for every tournament in those days though. And when we failed it was often after a bad start.

In six opening games in qualifying disappointments between 1970 and 1994 we lost three, won two and drew one. One of the wins (against East Germany in the 1984 European Champions qualifiers) was the only game we won in the group:

• Euro 1972: Denmark, won 1-0 (Home)
• Euro 1976: Spain, lost 2-1 (Home)
• Euro 1980: Austria, lost 3-2 (Away)
• Euro 1984: East Germany, won 2-0 (Home)
• Euro 1988: Bulgaria, drew 0-0 (Home)
• 1994 World Cup: Switzerland, lost 3-1 (Away)

From the qualifying stage of the 1970 World Cup we've had seven opening wins out of nine in successful campaigns. And just four opening wins out of 13 in unsuccessful campaigns.

International football is - as the cliché has it - much changed in the last 40 years. Some of our qualifications came from groups of just three teams. Some of them belied a good start and turned into desperate, last gasp battles to get through.

That makes it hard to draw conclusions from Scotland's opening game record through the years.

But it does harden the opinion that failing to beat Serbia at home will nudge our qualification chances to the impossible end of difficult.

We'll just need to trust that Levein and Houston realise that as well.

Otherwise we're doomed. And so are they.

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